CGWS(SZ:002939) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-22 07:21Core Viewpoint - The report from Changcheng Securities highlights the emergence of new momentum driven by AI and the ongoing push for domestic chip substitution, focusing on companies within the AI industry chain and identifying undervalued leaders and turnaround firms. Group 1: HBM Overview - HBM has broken through the traditional memory wall, with the rise of 3D stacked DRAM from HBM1 to HBM3E, increasing capacity from 1GB to 36GB and bandwidth from 128GB/s to 1.2TB/s [1] - CSP (Cloud Service Providers) are increasing capital expenditures, leading to a surge in AI server deployments and HBM configuration upgrades, driving high demand for HBM [1] - HBM demand is expected to grow significantly, with total bit demand projected to increase by 89% in 2025 and 67% in 2026, with AI servers expected to account for over 15% of shipments by 2025 [1] Group 2: HBM Supply Dynamics - HBM manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion and upgrading production lines to higher generations, with a competitive landscape dominated by SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron [2] - The market share of HBM manufacturers is expected to shift from 5:3:2 to 5:2:3 by 2025 and 2026, with HBM3E expected to dominate the market [2] - Total bit supply for HBM is projected to increase by 84% in 2025 and 47% in 2026, with significant capacity expansion from major manufacturers [2] Group 3: HBM Pricing and Future Trends - The supply-demand ratio for HBM is expected to reach 45% in 2025 and 27% in 2026, indicating a narrowing supply gap [2] - HBM average selling prices (ASP) are projected to reach $1.76 and $1.84 per Gb in 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by high-end product iterations [2] - The next generation HBM4 is anticipated to be realized in 2026, with advancements in cooling and bonding technologies to meet future demands [2] Group 4: Storage Trends in the AI Era - The demand for storage is expected to rise due to the increasing data volume driven by AI applications, with DRAM and NAND prices likely to continue their upward trend [3] - The supply-demand ratio for DRAM is projected to reach 97.9% in 2025, while NAND Flash is expected to reach 98.3%, indicating potential price increases [3] - The anticipated quarterly price increases for DRAM and NAND Flash in Q3 2025 are estimated at 15-20% and 5-10%, respectively, continuing the upward trend [3]