高盛：升东亚银行目标价至11.8港元 兼上调盈测 评级“沽售”

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reported that East Asia Bank's (00023) first-half revenue met expectations, but net interest income and fee income were below forecasts, offset by trading gains [1] - Earnings per share exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations by 14%, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%, slightly below the forecast of 47% [1] - The interim dividend was set at 39 HKD cents, approximately 10% higher than Goldman Sachs' estimate of 35 HKD cents [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its earnings per share estimates for East Asia Bank for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 8%, 11%, and 24%, respectively, and increased the target price by 12% from 10.5 HKD to 11.8 HKD, maintaining a "sell" rating [1] - The management of East Asia Bank anticipates headwinds for net interest margin in the second half of 2025 and maintains a conservative outlook on loan growth [1] - Loan growth is projected to be 2.1%, 2.8%, and 4% year-on-year for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with deposit growth estimates adjusted to 5.5%, 3.9%, and 2.9% [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs assumes a net interest margin sensitivity (NIM beta) of 0.16 for the current interest rate cut cycle, slightly lower than the previous period [2] - Net interest margin forecasts for East Asia Bank for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.78%, 1.8%, and 1.75%, with corresponding net interest income expected to decline by 15%, increase by 5%, and increase by 0.4% [2] - Non-interest income estimates for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 11%, 8%, and 6% due to better-than-expected trading income performance [2] Group 4 - Credit costs for East Asia Bank are expected to be 97 basis points this year, normalizing to 80 and 55 basis points in 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Projected dividend payout ratios for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 46%, 49%, and 51%, indicating an average payout ratio of 49% over the next three years, compared to an average of about 40% over the past five years [2]