LBX(SH:603883) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-22 07:49Core Insights - The latest data from the People's Bank of China indicates a significant cooling in the real estate market, with the total personal housing loan balance reaching 37.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.1% decrease compared to the same period last year, signaling a profound transformation in the market [1][3] Group 1: Loan Dynamics - Personal housing loan balances have experienced negative growth for the second consecutive year, with this year's decline of 0.1% being less severe than last year's 2.1%, indicating that the speed of loan repayments is outpacing new loan issuance [3][5] - In the first half of this year, new housing loans amounted to only 51 billion yuan, while early repayments reached an astonishing scale, with 24 yuan being repaid for every 1 yuan of new loans issued [3][5] Group 2: Market Conditions - The decline in housing loan balances is primarily attributed to weak housing sales, with new residential sales dropping by 5.2% year-on-year to 4.42 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, affecting the growth of loan balances as over 80% of Chinese homebuyers rely on loans [5][6] - Despite the downtrend, the average down payment ratio has fallen to a historical low of 15% for both first and second homes, yet buyers remain hesitant to take on loans due to a defensive savings mentality amid income instability [5][6] Group 3: Changing Buyer Behavior - The appeal of early repayment arbitrage is diminishing as the gap between new loan rates (3.1%) and existing loan rates has narrowed to less than 0.5%, with many families that could repay early having already done so [6][7] - The proportion of homebuyers under 25 has plummeted from 17% in 2020 to 3.8% in 2025, reflecting a shift in attitudes where younger generations prefer renting over taking on long-term debt [6][7] Group 4: Market Recovery Challenges - Although the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 30 major cities increased by 12% in the first half of the year, this growth is largely superficial, as it represents a transfer of debt rather than an increase in overall loan amounts [7] - The anticipated rise in foreclosures, with an expected 210,000 new cases in 2025, poses a significant risk to the housing loan balance, as these properties may become "bad debts" [7] - Government measures to stimulate the market, including a 60% reduction in loan rates from historical highs, have not led to sustained recovery, highlighting the fragile nature of the real estate market [7]