华尔街的下一个雷？美国私募信贷市场违约警告激增

Group 1 - The private credit market, valued at $1.7 trillion, is facing a surge in default warnings, with analysts concerned that the actual default rate may be significantly underestimated [1][2] - According to a report by JPMorgan, if non-accrual loans are included, the default rate in the private credit market has risen to 5.4%, comparable to the broader syndicated loan market [1][2] - Analysts warn that years of rapid fundraising in private credit funds have led to relaxed underwriting standards, which could result in excessive losses during an economic downturn [1][3] Group 2 - The definition of default in the private credit market is inconsistent, with current reported default rates ranging from 2% to 3%. However, including non-accrual loans raises the rate to 5.4% [2] - The "shadow default rate," which considers "bad" in-kind payments as part of total investments, reached 6% in Q2, significantly higher than 2% in 2021 [2] - Analysts agree on the upward trend in defaults, despite differences in specific data, indicating a growing concern in the market [3] Group 3 - The influx of capital into the private credit asset class has led to a rapid allocation of funds, resulting in compromised underwriting processes, which may lead to greater losses in a downturn [3] - Private companies and lenders are using in-kind payment arrangements to avoid cash defaults, allowing borrowers to defer cash interest payments until maturity, ultimately leading to larger liabilities [3] - The ability of private credit funds to attract capital is diminishing, as they are no longer the strong magnet for investment they once were, despite still offering returns above 8% [3]