海外客户激增，加密币交易起量，大摩看好富途“估值提升”

Core Viewpoint - Futu Holdings is experiencing structural growth potential beyond traditional brokerage cycles, driven by clear advancements in its cryptocurrency business and strong performance in overseas markets [1][10]. Cryptocurrency Business Progress - Morgan Stanley highlights that Futu's cryptocurrency business, although in its early stages, is showing rapid progress with key data indicating significant growth [2][4]. - The company has introduced a long-term strategy named "RACE" to guide the future development of its cryptocurrency business, emphasizing user adoption and potential fee increases as market penetration grows [4][18]. - In Q2 2025, the value of customer-held cryptocurrency assets increased by 40% quarter-over-quarter, reaching HKD 4 billion, while daily trading volume doubled from approximately USD 20 million to USD 40 million [5]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Barclays has raised its financial forecasts for Futu, increasing the adjusted net income predictions for FY 2025 by 22% and for FY 2026 by 36.4%, maintaining a target valuation multiple of 15x EV/nominal EBITDA [14]. - Morgan Stanley has updated its valuation model, raising the target price for Futu from USD 160 to USD 210, reflecting a potential revaluation of the company based on its growth prospects [1][11]. Overseas Market Expansion - Futu's global strategy is yielding results, with significant contributions from overseas markets, particularly in Singapore and Japan, where client assets and trading volumes have seen substantial increases [8][10]. - In Q2 2025, client assets in Singapore grew by 26% quarter-over-quarter, while trading volumes in Japan surged by 50%, driven by localized products and AI tools [10]. Revenue and Profitability Projections - The removal of a previously applied 50% discount on revenue contributions from the cryptocurrency business has led to an 8% increase in revenue forecasts and an 11% increase in net profit projections for 2027 [18]. - The new target price of USD 210 corresponds to a P/E ratio of 25x based on expected earnings for 2026, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on future cash flow growth [18].