Core Viewpoint - The recent performance report of Baiguoyuan (02411.HK) reveals significant financial struggles, with a notable decline in revenue and profitability, indicating a challenging market environment and shifting consumer behavior [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Baiguoyuan reported total revenue of 4.376 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8% [3][4]. - Gross profit plummeted from 619 million RMB in the same period last year to 216 million RMB, marking a 65.1% decline, which resulted in a gross margin drop from 11.1% to 4.9% [3][4]. - The company recorded a net loss attributable to shareholders of 342 million RMB, compared to a profit of 88.5 million RMB in the previous year, reflecting a staggering 486.5% decline [4][5]. Store Operations - As of June 30, 2025, Baiguoyuan closed over 700 stores, reducing the total number of stores to 4,386 from 5,127 at the end of 2024 [5][6]. - The decline in store count is part of a strategy to optimize store layout and improve operational efficiency amid declining consumer spending [5][7]. Consumer Behavior - Despite an increase in total membership to 93.041 million, the number of paying members fell by 32.9% to 719,000, indicating a shift in consumer engagement [5][7]. - Retail sales also decreased by 15.4%, from 6.748 billion RMB to 5.71 billion RMB, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment [5][7]. Strategic Shift - Baiguoyuan is undergoing a strategic transformation, moving from a high-end positioning to a focus on high-quality and cost-effective fruit products [7][10]. - The company has implemented promotional activities to boost customer traffic and purchase frequency, while also adjusting its franchise policies and supply chain operations [7][10]. Brand Perception - Recent controversial statements by the chairman regarding consumer education have negatively impacted brand perception, leading to potential loss of paying members [8][10]. - The company's previous high-end branding strategy is now challenged by a market that increasingly favors value for money, raising concerns about brand trust and consumer loyalty [10][12]. Quality Concerns - Baiguoyuan has faced multiple quality issues, undermining consumer trust in its products, which could further complicate its efforts to reposition the brand [11][12].
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