Core Insights - The fruit industry in 2024 is experiencing a dual trend of consumption downgrade and upgrade, with domestic demand softening while the imported fruit market expands [1] - The leading fruit retailer, Baiguoyuan, reported a GMV of 12.71 billion yuan and revenue of 10.27 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.8% [1] - The company is transitioning towards high-quality development amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment, focusing on strategic store closures and channel optimization [1][2] Revenue Performance - Revenue decline is attributed to a weak macro consumption environment and strategic store closures aimed at optimizing high-rent locations [1] - In H1 2024, revenue fell by 11%, while H2 showed a reduced decline of 8%, indicating the effectiveness of the company's strategic adjustments [1][2] Profitability Analysis - The profit decline is a result of short-term discounts aimed at enhancing long-term customer loyalty, with gross margin decreasing from 11.5% in 2023 to 7.4% in 2024 [2] - Sales expenses increased by 1.2 billion yuan (+26%), reflecting the company's investment in brand building and customer retention [2] Business Segments - The To B segment (direct sales of fruits and other foods) achieved a revenue of 1.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, while the To C segment saw a revenue decline of 12.95% [4] - The company launched a dual strategy of "high quality and high cost performance," successfully introducing 46 proprietary fruit brands, with significant sales growth in specific products [5] Membership and Online Growth - Membership numbers exceeded 9.074 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 8.1%, with strong online growth reflected in the usage of WeChat mini-programs [6] - Online orders accounted for about 25.2% of total orders, showcasing the company's robust online sales capabilities [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of December 31, 2024, Baiguoyuan held cash and cash equivalents totaling 2.34 billion yuan, with a healthy operating cash flow of 160 million yuan [8] - The company has maintained stable inventory turnover days, indicating effective management of receivables and payables [8][9] Operational Efficiency - The company closed underperforming stores, focusing resources on high-performing locations, which improved overall operational efficiency [9] - The introduction of the "1212" category operation strategy enhanced product turnover and reduced inventory backlog, further improving cash flow [9][10] Future Outlook - Despite short-term performance pressures, Baiguoyuan's core operational metrics indicate resilience, with expectations for gradual performance recovery and long-term value enhancement [10]

现如今，国内水果零售龙头百果园(02411)也正在历经这一战略转型阶段，主动收缩冗余业务，聚焦高 质量高价值场景，致力于长效且结构性改进的战略布局。由此及彼，这也正是外界想要探索的优质成长 力。 从上述核心财务数据来看，不难看出，百果园亦正在经历战略收缩下的"短期阵痛"，但从长远的角度来 看，聚焦高价值业务叠加商业模式的可持续性,公司长期发展价值不改。 聚焦高质价比用户心智，深筑品牌护城河 以突破危机重返高光的瑞幸来说，在品牌经历快速扩张后，其也曾经历过一段黯淡时刻，而后瑞幸通 过"收缩-聚焦-再扩张"这一战略转型路径，公司俨然也再度成为国内咖啡行业的领军品牌，门店数量和 销售额均超过星巴克等竞争对手。 3月27日，百果园发布2024年度业绩报告。收入端方面均有所下滑，2024年，公司录得GMV为127亿 元，总收入为102.7亿元。利润端方面也有所承压，录得毛利7.6亿元，归母净亏损为3.86亿元。 其中，收入端的下滑主要是门店数量减少所致，分时段看，上半年同店销售出现双位数下滑，但下半年 企稳回升。利润端承压则是源于公司下半年实施高品质高性价比战略，对消费者进行让利，毛利率有所 承压，同时门店焕新、线上线 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by approximately 9.8% from RMB 11,390.6 million in 2023 to RMB 10,273.3 million in 2024[13] - Gross profit fell by about 41.9% from RMB 1,314.8 million in 2023 to RMB 764.4 million in 2024[13] - The company recorded a loss attributable to owners of RMB 386.0 million in 2024, compared to a profit of RMB 361.7 million in 2023, representing a change of 206.7%[13] - Total retail sales amounted to RMB 12,703.3 million in 2024, down from RMB 14,171.3 million in 2023[6] - Revenue from franchise stores decreased from RMB 8,499.8 million in 2023 to RMB 7,396.3 million in 2024, representing a decline of approximately 12.9%[38] - The company reported a pre-tax loss of RMB 391.5 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, compared to a pre-tax profit of RMB 381.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2023[50] - The net loss for the year ending December 31, 2024, was approximately RMB 399.8 million, compared to a net profit of approximately RMB 340.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, resulting in a net loss margin of 3.89%[52] Membership and Customer Metrics - Membership increased to 90,743 thousand in 2024, up from 83,905 thousand in 2023[6] - The number of paid members decreased from 1,171 thousand in 2023 to 854 thousand in 2024[6] - The total number of members across all distribution channels exceeded 90.74 million, representing an 8.1% year-on-year growth, while paid membership decreased by approximately 27.1% to about 850,000[21] Store Operations - The company managed 4,039 franchise stores in 2024, down from 4,818 in 2023[5] - The total number of stores decreased from 6,093 in 2023 to 5,127 in 2024[5] - As of December 31, 2024, the company has a total of 5,127 retail stores, a decrease of approximately 15.9% from 6,093 stores as of December 31, 2023[16] Product and Sales Performance - The sales revenue from franchise stores managed by the company reached RMB 7,388.0 million, accounting for 99.4% of total sales, while self-operated stores contributed RMB 40.6 million, or 0.5%[18] - The company launched six seasonal products, achieving a total sales increase of approximately 388.4% year-on-year, significantly boosting new customer acquisition and member repurchase rates[19] - Direct sales revenue from fruits and other foods increased by approximately 21.7% to RMB 1,255.7 million, with overseas direct sales growing by about 18.0% compared to 2023[22] - The sales revenue of premium and A-grade fruits accounted for approximately 62.8% of the total retail sales at the company's stores for the year ending December 31, 2024[24] Financial Position and Cash Flow - As of December 31, 2024, the company's net asset value was RMB 2,810.3 million, down from RMB 3,337.1 million in 2023[57] - The company raised approximately HKD 474.0 million from its global offering and listing in the first quarter of 2023[56] - The net cash inflow from operating activities increased to RMB 164.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to a net cash outflow of RMB 48.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2023[68] - The net cash used in investing activities was RMB 760.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, primarily due to payments for property, plant, and equipment related to a new office building in Shenzhen[68] Expenses and Cost Management - Sales expenses increased by approximately 25.5% from RMB 482.0 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 605.1 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, driven by the execution of a new strategy aimed at enhancing brand recognition[44] - Management expenses rose by about 5.1% from RMB 313.5 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 329.6 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, mainly due to the implementation of a share incentive plan[45] - Financial costs increased to RMB 104,744 in 2024 from RMB 80,502 in 2023[100] Strategic Initiatives - The company initiated a category operation system upgrade in August 2024, focusing on optimizing product combinations based on consumer behavior data[19] - The company aims to enhance market competitiveness through advanced agricultural technology and product differentiation strategies[32] - The company plans to enhance retail store operational efficiency and increase marketing resources to improve brand recognition and store profitability[30] Market and Industry Trends - The import fruit market grew by approximately 6.0% in 2024, reaching a total of about USD 19.45 billion[10] - Collaborations with tea beverage companies and the health industry are being pursued to meet diverse fruit consumption needs and expand market presence[31] Shareholder and Governance - The company plans to pay a final dividend of RMB 0.0065 per share, totaling approximately RMB 10.0 million for the year[7] - The audit committee has reviewed the accounting principles and practices adopted by the group, confirming compliance with applicable accounting standards[116] - The company expresses gratitude to shareholders, management, employees, business partners, and customers for their support and contributions[122]

毛利率的话会在这个是一个这个逐步U型回暖的这么一个过程啊那么今年明年上半年的毛利率可能会比今年毛利率更好啊那么明年下半年比明年上半年会更好啊逐步再回到一个常态化的一个毛利率啊那么在这个26年之后我们再回到一个这个我们觉得normalize可能是一个 那么在净利润这端的话 我也会一方面随着我们的这个销售规模和毛利的回归也会在逐步在二五年下半年回来那么明年我们还会继续有一些这个 本增效的举措那么这24年大家知道是我们在包括市场营销这些投入上是有一个投入的一个peak这些其实有些是比较one off一次性的费用包括像资金费然后有灾人等等这些其实是相对one off的净化我们提供的过多的市场营销的费用那么在其他的然后研究 这个优化的我们觉得费用率呢长期来看的话也是比较稳定能够平化的所以从这个收入上来看我们觉得这个二五年还是能保持稳定然后这个成本也是在逐步的这个平化利润的话可能在这个二五年下半年之后回到一个这个回升的一个状态 以上好的谢谢左总下一个问题是关于港武通初通的问题因为我们也观察到其实公司市值确实还是有一定的回调那么回调之后的话其实可能和港武通的标准可能就是有一些大了差距就大了公司是不是也预期可能会在 未来的某 ...

Store Operations and Expansion - The company upgraded nearly 6,000 franchised stores to enhance brand awareness[3][5] - The Group's offline store network expanded to 6,025 stores across 190 cities in 22 provinces and municipalities in China as of June 30, 2024[66] - The Group recorded a net increase of 67 retail stores in H1 2024 compared to June 30, 2023[66] - Total retail stores increased by 1.1% from 5,958 in June 2023 to 6,025 in June 2024, driven by franchisee confidence in China's fruit retail industry[67][68] - Total retail stores decreased by 1.1% from 6,093 in December 2023 to 6,025 in June 2024 due to reduced consumer spending and increased rent[67][68] - Revenue from franchised stores supervised by the Group was RMB 4,004,869 thousand in 2024, accounting for 99.3% of total revenue[70] - The company upgraded nearly 6,000 franchised stores in H1 2024 to enhance brand awareness, including standardizing store decorations and optimizing product displays[70][72] - Two large-scale innovative stores exceeding 150 square meters were operational in Yueyang City, Hunan Province as of June 30, 2024[72] - The number of franchised stores decreased by 1.9% from 4,795 in 2023 to 4,707 in 2024[111] - Average half-year revenue per franchised store decreased by 13.7% from RMB1.0 million in 2023 to RMB0.9 million in 2024[111] - Number of franchised stores supervised decreased by 1.9% from 4,795 in June 2023 to 4,707 in June 2024, with average semi-annual revenue per store dropping 13.7% from RMB1.0 million to RMB0.9 million[113] Sales and Revenue Performance - The sales of fruit gift boxes accounted for 13.0% of total store sales in the first half of 2024[3][5] - The 2B business unit grew by approximately 30.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2024[6][8] - Shenzhen Banguo achieved a gross merchandise value (GMV) of RMB1,469.7 million in the first half of 2024[6][8] - The company introduced 42 category brands, accounting for 16.0% of total store sales as of June 30, 2024[6][9] - The Group's revenue decreased by 11.1% from RMB6,294.3 million in H1 2023 to RMB5,594.1 million in H1 2024[63] - The Group's gross profit decreased by 13.2% from RMB712.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB618.5 million in H1 2024[63] - The Group's profit attributable to owners decreased by 66.1% from RMB260.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB88.5 million in H1 2024[63] - Revenue from direct sales of fruits and other food products increased by 30.0% to RMB712.8 million in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023[79][81] - Overseas market direct sales of fruits increased by 29.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024[79][81] - Shenzhen Banguo's GMV reached RMB1,469.7 million in the first half of 2024, with the addition of 1 main warehouse and 138 city warehouses[79][82] - Excellent and Grade A fruits accounted for 64.0% of the company's gross store retail sales in the first half of 2024[83][85] - Self-branded fruits accounted for 16.0% of the company's gross store retail sales in the first half of 2024[83][85] - The company launched 5 new Excellent fruit brands in the first half of 2024, bringing the total to 42[83][85] - Total revenue decreased by 11.1% from RMB6,294.3 million in 2023 to RMB5,594.1 million in 2024[104] - Revenue from sales of fruits and other food products accounted for 97.2% of total revenue in both 2023 and 2024[104] - Direct sales revenue increased by 30.0% from RMB548.3 million in 2023 to RMB712.8 million in 2024[107] - Revenue from franchised stores decreased by 15.2% from RMB4,732.1 million in 2023 to RMB4,011.8 million in 2024[107] - Overseas market sales increased by 29.4% from RMB109.0 million in 2023 to RMB141.0 million in 2024[108] - Domestic market sales to 2B customers increased by 30.2% from RMB439.3 million in 2023 to RMB571.8 million in 2024[109] - Cost of sales decreased by 10.9% from RMB5,581.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB4,975.6 million in H1 2024, in line with reduced revenue from fruit and other food sales[112][114] - Gross profit decreased by 13.2% from RMB712.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB618.5 million in H1 2024, with gross profit margin slightly declining from 11.3% to 11.1%[113][115] - Other income increased by 27.7% from RMB21.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB27.4 million in H1 2024, primarily due to increased government grants[117][121] - Selling expenses increased by 22.6% from RMB242.0 million in H1 2023 to RMB296.6 million in H1 2024, driven by brand renewal campaign costs[119][123] - Administrative expenses increased by 14.9% from RMB146.9 million in H1 2023 to RMB168.7 million in H1 2024, due to higher staff costs and legal fees[120][124] - Research and development expenses decreased by 10.5% from RMB74.1 million in H1 2023 to RMB66.3 million in H1 2024, primarily due to reduced R&D headcount[127][130] - Finance income increased by 35.8% from RMB20.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB27.9 million in H1 2024, while finance costs rose 36.7% from RMB38.4 million to RMB52.5 million due to increased bank borrowings[128][131] - Profit before tax decreased by 63.6% from RMB272.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB99.3 million in H1 2024, mainly due to reduced retail sales and increased brand renewal expenses[134] - Income tax expense decreased by 30.2% from RMB21.9 million in H1 2023 to RMB15.3 million in H1 2024, primarily due to reduced operating profit and taxable income[135][139] - Net profit decreased by 66.5% from RMB250.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB84.0 million in H1 2024, with net profit margin dropping from 4.0% to 1.5%[136][140] - Profit before tax decreased by 63.6% from RMB272.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB99.3 million in H1 2024, mainly due to reduced retail sales and increased brand renewal expenses[138] - Share of losses from associates and joint ventures was RMB4.0 million in H1 2024, compared to a profit of RMB7.5 million in H1 2023[137] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2024 was RMB88.9 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%, after adding back share-based payment expenses of RMB4.96 million[147] Marketing and Brand Awareness - The company held two Excellent fruits press conferences in April and July 2024 to enhance consumer awareness[6][9] - The company implemented a new strategy of "expert and leader in high-quality fruit industry" at the beginning of 2024[4][10] - The company aims to become a world-leading fruit eco-technology company[11] - The company's mission is to offer delicious fruits and enjoyable lifestyle to people[12] - The company's core values include conscience, trust, altruism, innovation, and results[13] - Douyin live broadcast views reached 70.93 million in H1 2024, a 218.5% increase compared to the same period in 2023[74][75] - The company achieved over 100 million exposures in a single month and daily single product sales exceeding RMB 500,000 on Douyin instant retail in H1 2024[75] - Fruit gift box sales increased from 10.6% of total store sales in 2023 to 13.0% in H1 2024[76] - The company had over 84 million members across all distribution channels and 1,071 thousand paying members as of June 30, 2024[77] - WeChat mini-program users reached 69.39 million, an 11.9% increase compared to the same period in 2023[77] - Online orders accounted for 26.1% of the company's total orders in the first half of 2024[78][80] - The number of WeChat community followers increased by 5.2% year-on-year to over 17.3 million as of June 30, 2024[78][80] - The company's new strategy of "expert and leader in high-quality fruit industry" aims to strengthen distribution channels and products, enhancing consumer brand awareness and market leadership[100] Financial and Operational Metrics - The company's H Shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 16, 2023[45] - The 2023 Share Award Scheme was approved by shareholders at the first extraordinary general meeting on September 28, 2023[31] - The company's registered office is located at No. 3018 Shayan Road, Tianxin Community, Shatoujiao Street, Yantian District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China[26] - The company's principal place of business in Hong Kong is at the 40th Floor, Dah Sing Financial Centre, No. 248 Queen's Road East, Wanchai, Hong Kong[26] - The company's H Share registrar is Computershare Hong Kong Investor Services Limited, located at Shops 1712-1716, 17th Floor, Hopewell Centre, 183 Queen's Road East, Wanchai, Hong Kong[27] - The company's principal banks include China Merchants Bank, Longhua Branch, Bank of Communications, Xiangzhou Branch, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Shenzhen Fuqiang Branch[27] - The company's overseas auditor is PricewaterhouseCoopers, located at 22/F, Prince's Building, Central, Hong Kong[23] - The company's domestic auditor is ShineWing Certified Public Accountants LLP Shenzhen Branch, located at 19-20/F, MFC, No. 9, Pengcheng 1st Road, Futian District, Shenzhen, China[24] - The company's compliance adviser is Somerley Capital Limited, located at 20th Floor, China Building, 29 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong[26] - The company's website is www.pagoda.com.cn[27] - China's fruit imports reached US$11.23 billion in H1 2024, a 3.8% increase compared to the same period in 2023[58] - The consumer price index (CPI) for fresh fruits in China decreased by 7.8% in H1 2024 compared to H1 2023[58] - Shenzhen Banguo Technology Co., Ltd. is owned 51.00% by Pagoda Investment, 15.00% by Mr. XU Yusheng, 23.93% by Mr. LI Jiang, and 10.07% by Beijing Banguo Yuhuoban Technology Development Center[49] - The upgraded smart ordering 3.0 system improved sales forecast accuracy by 10% in the first half of 2024[87][90] - The company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Good Fruit Inspection and Testing (Guangdong) Co., Ltd., obtained the Qualification Certificate from the Inspection and Testing Agency in February 2024, allowing the use of the CMA mark in fruit test reports[92] - In July 2024, the company collaborated with Jinan Fruit Research Institute to issue the industry's first Raw Materials for Fresh-cut Fruits enterprise standard, categorizing fruits into five main categories and setting standards based on key indicators[93] - The company plans to optimize the franchise model by reducing royalty fees, enhancing brand marketing resources, and providing training support to improve single-store profitability[97] - The company will upgrade its scientific pricing system, improving algorithms and adjusting category structure and pricing strategy based on detailed urban business district data[97] - The company aims to expand domestic and overseas distribution channels, develop new fruit gift boxes for 2B customers, and strengthen product development capabilities through exclusive distribution rights[99] - The company will implement the "Buy Globally, Sell Globally" strategy to promote high-quality fruits from various production areas to be circulated and traded globally[99] - The company will continue to introduce advanced agricultural and seedling technologies to suppliers to improve fruit quality and quantity, aiming to establish a competitive umbrella category brand[100] - Cash and bank balances increased to RMB3,122.9 million as of June 30, 2024, including unrestricted cash and equivalents of RMB2,840.5 million[150] - Net asset value as of June 30, 2024 was RMB3,344.4 million, with current assets of RMB5,778.6 million and current liabilities of RMB4,544.0 million[149] - The company received net proceeds of HK$474.0 million from its Global Offering and Listing in Q1 2023, which it intends to use for expansion and operations[148] - The Group completed its Global Offering and Listing in Q1 2023, raising net proceeds of HK$474.0 million[152][156] - As of June 30, 2024, the Group had net assets of RMB3,344.4 million, with current assets of RMB5,778.6 million and current liabilities of RMB4,544.0 million[153] - The Group's cash and bank deposits increased to RMB3,122.9 million as of June 30, 2024, from RMB2,537.1 million as of December 31, 2023[154] - The Group's gearing ratio increased from 56.8% as of December 31, 2023 to 87.7% as of June 30, 2024, primarily due to increased bank borrowings[160][162] - The Group allocated HK$229.5 million (48.4% of net proceeds) to improve and enhance operation and supply chain systems[158] - The Group allocated HK$127.5 million (26.9% of net proceeds) to upgrade and improve core backbone IT systems and infrastructure[158] - The Group allocated HK$91.5 million (19.3% of net proceeds) to repay part of interest-bearing bank borrowings[158] - The Group had non-current bank borrowings of RMB168.9 million and short-term bank borrowings of RMB2,765.2 million as of June 30, 2024[160][162] - The Group pledged right-of-use assets of RMB47.3 million and buildings of RMB22.6 million as collateral for bank borrowings as of June 30, 2024[161][163] - The Group had RMB272.6 million of unutilized net proceeds as of June 30, 2024, deposited in short-term interest-bearing deposits[158][159] - Net cash generated from operating activities increased to RMB277.7 million in H1 2024 from RMB225.1 million in H1 2023, driven by decreases in deposits, prepayments, and other receivables of RMB81.6 million and inventories of RMB45.4 million[165][167] - Net cash used in investing activities was RMB1,002.7 million in H1 2024, primarily due to net acquisition of financial assets at FVTPL of RMB458.9 million and long-term bank deposits of RMB435.0 million[165][167] - Net cash generated from financing activities was RMB905.8 million in H1 2024, mainly from bank borrowings of RMB1,730.1 million, compared to RMB639.9 million in H1 2023[165][168] - Structured deposits accounted for as financial assets at FVTPL increased to RMB652.1 million as of June 30, 2024, from RMB180.4 million as of December 31, 2023[171][172] - Other financial assets at FVTPL decreased to RMB78.2 million as of June 30, 2024, from RMB86.5 million as of December 31, 2023[171][172] - Financial assets at FVOCI increased to RMB33.8 million as of June 30, 2024, from RMB30.6 million as of December 31, 2023[171][172] - Capital expenditures amounted to RMB86.6 million in H1 2024, primarily for the construction of a new office building in Shenzhen[172][175] - The Group subscribed to structured deposit products from CITIC Bank with total principal amounts of RMB125 million, RMB25 million, RMB50 million, RMB100 million, and RMB125 million, with expected annualized returns ranging from 1.05% to 2.61%[178] - Subscribed to CITIC structured deposit products with principal amounts totaling RMB125 million, RMB25 million, RMB50 million, and RMB100 million, with expected annual return rates ranging from 1.05% to 2.61%[179] - Subscribed to BOB structured deposit products with principal amounts totaling RMB100 million and RMB300 million, with expected annual return rates ranging from 1.30% to 2.88%[180][181] - Average inventory turnover days increased from 9.2 days in H1 2023 to 10.9 days in H1 2024[185][187] - Average trade receivables turnover days increased from 31.7 days in H1 2023 to 34.2 days in H1 2024[185][187] - Average trade payables

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **HKD 2.03**, representing a **34.6% upside** from the current price of HKD 1.51 [2][3] Core Views - The company's **fruit retail business is under pressure**, with a **11.1% YoY decline** in revenue and a **66.1% YoY drop** in net profit in 1H24 [2] - **Direct sales business continues to grow rapidly**, with domestic and overseas direct sales increasing by **30.2% and 29.4% YoY**, respectively, driven by expanded market coverage and partnerships [2] - The company's **store count remains stable** at 6,025 as of June 30, 2024, with a net increase of 67 stores YoY [2] - The company has implemented a **new strategy** focusing on becoming a **high-quality fruit expert and leader**, which has shown initial success with **42 proprietary fruit brands** and a **16% share** of total retail sales [2] - The report forecasts **net profits of RMB 1.9/2.8/3.6 billion** for 2024-2026, driven by strategic adjustments and growth in direct sales and overseas C-end business [2] Financial Performance - **Revenue** is expected to decline by **11.4% YoY** in 2024 to RMB 10,095.6 million, followed by a **4.4% increase** in 2025 and a **6.5% increase** in 2026 [1][6] - **Net profit attributable to shareholders** is projected to drop by **46.3% YoY** in 2024 to RMB 194.1 million, with a recovery of **43.2% YoY** in 2025 and **27.9% YoY** in 2026 [1][6] - **Basic EPS** is forecasted to decrease to **12.33 RMB cents** in 2024, recovering to **17.65 RMB cents** in 2025 and **22.58 RMB cents** in 2026 [1][6] - The **P/E ratio** is expected to rise to **12.2x** in 2024, then decline to **8.6x** in 2025 and **6.7x** in 2026 [1][6] Business Segments - **Fruit and other food sales** accounted for **RMB 5.44 billion** in 1H24, down **11.1% YoY**, while **other income** grew by **72.1% YoY** to RMB 50 million [2] - **Franchise fees and franchise income** declined by **31.8% YoY** to RMB 70 million, and **membership income** dropped by **19.9% YoY** to RMB 40 million [2] - **Online channel revenue** fell by **61.1% YoY** to RMB 60 million, reflecting challenges in the retail environment [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has expanded its **supply chain efficiency** and **2B market share** through the acquisition of **Shenzhen Ban Guo**, targeting small and medium-sized fruit suppliers [2] - The **C-end overseas expansion** is expected to break the **store opening ceiling**, with the company announcing its official entry into overseas markets in September 2024 [2] - The company's **proprietary fruit brands** now account for **16% of total retail sales**, up **2 percentage points YoY**, with **5 new brands** launched in 1H24 [2] - **Gift sales** contributed **13.0%** of total sales in 1H24, up **2.4 percentage points** from 2023, driven by holiday promotions [2] Industry Comparison - The company's **P/E ratio** of **6.0x** for 2024 is lower than the **simple average of 30.3x** for the retail industry, indicating potential undervaluation [5] - The company's **CAGR for 2024-2026** is projected at **8.4%**, lower than the **23.1% average** for the retail industry but higher than some peers like **Tianhong Digital Commerce** (9.6%) [5] - The company's **PEG ratio** of **1.1x** for 2024 is in line with the industry average, suggesting balanced growth and valuation [5]

商贸零售/专业连锁Ⅱ 公 司 研 究 上半年水果零售业务有所承压，2B 事业群表现良好 百果园集团（02411.HK） 2024 年 08 月 22 日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 黄泽鹏（分析师） 骆峥（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 luozheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040008 | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/22 | | 当前股价(港元) | 1.710 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 6.680/1.610 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 27.16 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 20.22 | | 总股本(亿股) | 15.89 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 11.83 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 6.97 | 公司 2024H1 营收同比-11.1%，归母净利润同比-66.1%，整体有所承压 公司发布中报：2024 年上半年实现营收 55.94 亿元（同比-11.1%）、归母净利 ...

[Table_Author] [Table_OtherReport] 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 百果园集团(2411.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 蔡昕妤 商贸零售分析师 执业编号：S1500523060001 联系电话：13921189535 邮 箱：caixinyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 百果园集团(2411.HK)24H1 点评：受消费力 走弱及费用投放加大影响，24H1 收入/净利 分别同降 11%/66% [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 8 月 22 日 [Table_S 公司发布ummar 2024y] 年中期报告： 24H1 公司实现营业收入 55.94 亿元/同比11.1%，归母净利润 0.89 亿元/同比-66.1%，毛利率 11.1%/-0.3pct，净利率 1.5%/-2.5pct。 业务数据方面：1）截至 202 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) Corporation Limited 深 圳 百 果 園 實 業（ 集 團 ）股 份 有 限 公 司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：2411） 截至二零二四年六月三十日止六個月 中期業績公告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------|------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | | 財務摘要 | | | | | 下表載列本集團於所示期間的若干關鍵財務資料。 | | | | | | 截至六月三十日止六個月 | | | | | 二零二四年 | 二零二三年 | 同比變動 | | | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | % | | ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 [Table_Industry] 批零贸易业 证 券 研 究 报 告 同店及拓店承压，静待企稳修复 ——百果园集团更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|---------------------|--------------------------| | [table_Authors] | 刘越男(分析师) | 陈笑(分析师) | | | 021-38677706 | 021-38677906 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | chenxiao015813@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880518020002 | 本报告导读： 当前消费环境较弱，公司拓店及同店承压，静待企稳修复。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持增持。考虑到当前的消费环境较弱以及门店战略焕新等的费用支 出，下调预测 2024-26 年经调整净利至 1.98/2.8 ...