中银航空租赁(2588.HK)：上游产能修复 NLY改善

Core Viewpoint - 中银航空租赁（BOCA）reported a net profit of $342 million for 1H25, a 20% year-on-year increase, aligning with Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $337 million [1] - The aviation leasing industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with aircraft manufacturers increasing production capacity, leading to a 12% year-on-year rise in total aircraft deliveries [1] Supply and Demand - Total aircraft deliveries in 1H25 increased by 12%, with Boeing's deliveries rebounding by 53%, compensating for a 7% decline in Airbus deliveries due to engine shortages [2] - The global new aircraft delivery value is expected to reach $100 billion in 2025, the highest since 2019, and is projected to exceed $141 billion by 2027 [2] - IATA forecasts a 5.8% growth in global Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) in 2025, supporting airline profitability, which is expected to reach $36 billion, up from $32 billion in 2024 [2] Capital Expenditure and Asset Growth - In the context of supply recovery, the company is actively expanding its fleet and optimizing its asset structure, with 24 aircraft deliveries in 1H25 compared to 18 in 1H24, and capital expenditure reaching $1.9 billion, a 150% year-on-year increase [2] - The company announced its largest aircraft order in March, increasing its total order backlog by over 50% to 351 aircraft, with committed capital expenditure of $20 billion [2] - As of the end of 1H25, the company owned 441 aircraft with an average age of 5 years and maintained a 100% utilization rate, indicating a healthy fleet [2] Profitability Improvement - The rental yield for operating leases increased by 50 basis points to 10.3% in 1H25, while the cost of debt remained stable at 4.6% [3] - The net lease yield (NLY) rose by 50 basis points to 7.5%, primarily due to the sale of older, low-yield aircraft and the introduction of higher-yield new models [3] - The company anticipates that the recovery in upstream capacity will facilitate smoother capital expenditure deployment, with rising rental rates expected to enhance asset yield [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to $710 million, $800 million, and $830 million, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.7%, 1.1%, and 3.2% [3] - The target price has been raised to HKD 85 from HKD 82, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.13x for 2025E [3] - The company's stock is currently trading at 0.96x 2025E PB and offers a 3.9% dividend yield, indicating potential investment value [3]