BABA(US:BABA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-23 15:08Core Insights - The article discusses the significant reduction of sellers on Taobao, reflecting a profound transformation in the e-commerce industry and the challenges faced by small sellers [1][17] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The e-commerce sector has shifted from a blue ocean to a fiercely competitive red ocean, with over 13.5 million participants in the online retail market as of June 2025, nearly tripling since 2015 [1][4] - The number of active sellers on Taobao is projected to decrease by 786,000 from 2024 to the first half of 2025, marking a 32.3% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [1][4] Group 2: Rising Costs - Customer acquisition costs on Taobao have surged, with an average cost of 45 yuan per person in the first half of 2025, a 127% increase since 2020, while the average transaction value only grew by 15% to 128 yuan [3][4] - Operational costs are also rising, with average commission rates on Taobao reaching 5.5%, and some popular categories exceeding 8% [4][5] Group 3: Platform Strategy and Regulation - Taobao's strategic shift has favored Tmall, with Tmall merchants receiving 68.3% of natural traffic in the first half of 2025, while Taobao individual sellers' share dropped to 31.7% [4][5] - The enforcement of stricter regulations has led to over 210,000 shops being penalized for violations in the first half of 2025, a 17.5% increase from 2024 [5][6] Group 4: Emerging Competitors - New platforms like Pinduoduo and Douyin are rapidly gaining user traction, with active buyer growth rates of 25.3% and 32.7%, respectively, while Taobao's growth was only 3.8% [6][7] Group 5: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing product quality, with 67.3% of online shoppers in 2025 citing quality as their primary factor for choosing an online store, an 18 percentage point increase since 2020 [7][9] Group 6: Strategies for Survival - Sellers are encouraged to adopt differentiation strategies, develop their own brands, embrace live-streaming and content marketing, and explore multi-platform operations to mitigate risks [9][11] - The overall e-commerce market is still expanding, with a national online retail sales figure of 7.2 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 15.3% year-on-year growth [11][17]