PCE与英伟达财报来袭，美股反弹行情迎考验｜美股一线

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a "first decline then rise" pattern in the week of August 18-22, driven by concerns over high inflation and slowing consumer spending, but rebounded strongly after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, raising expectations for a rate cut in September [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose approximately 0.3% over the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased about 1.5% for the second consecutive week. The Nasdaq index saw a slight decline of about 0.6%. The Russell 2000 index, sensitive to interest rates, performed the best with a weekly gain of approximately 3.3% [1]. - Following Powell's hints of a potential rate cut, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell to 4.256%, and the U.S. dollar index decreased to around 97.7 [1]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting unexpectedly leaned dovish, emphasizing the fragility of the labor market over inflation concerns. He noted the weak employment report released earlier in the month and indicated that the labor market is in a "new balance" state, which could quickly deteriorate if disrupted [2][3]. - The market interpreted Powell's comments as opening the door for a rate cut in September, with the CME FedWatch tool showing an 83% probability of a cut, up from 75% [2]. Economic Data - Recent economic data has shown conflicting trends, with persistent inflation pressures alongside signs of slowing consumer and employment growth. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% month-over-month, indicating ongoing inflation concerns [4]. - Initial jobless claims rose to 235,000, exceeding the previous week's 228,000, and consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, fell from 68.5 in July to 67.1 in early August, reflecting increased consumer caution [4]. Upcoming Events and Data - The upcoming week will feature several important economic data releases and corporate earnings reports, including Nvidia's earnings, which are expected to be pivotal for market direction. Other key data includes the PCE price index and initial jobless claims [6][7].