Core Viewpoint - The company reported slightly better-than-expected performance for 1H25, with revenue of 9.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a core operating profit of 1.07 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue from basic property management services, which accounts for about 70% of total revenue, grew by 10% year-on-year, solidifying the overall growth foundation [1] - The new annualized contract income reached 1.52 billion yuan, comparable to the same period last year, with a 5 percentage point increase in the proportion of core city projects to 95% [1] - The average property fee for new contracts was 3.7 yuan per square meter per month, compared to 3.2 yuan for existing contracts [1] - The gross profit margins for property services, park services, and consulting services increased by 0.4, 3.2, and 0.2 percentage points respectively, leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in overall gross profit margin [1] - Selling and administrative expenses decreased by 9% year-on-year, with the expense ratio down by 1.3 percentage points [1] Group 2: Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong cash position, with total cash (including cash and time deposits) of approximately 5.45 billion yuan, an increase of 1.14 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Trade and other receivables grew by 12% year-on-year, while operating cash outflow was 400 million yuan, slightly up from 360 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company is expected to maintain an active shareholder return policy, with a payout ratio exceeding 70% over the past two years and a cumulative repurchase amount of approximately 60 million yuan in 1H25 [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The company aims for quality growth and cash profit, with an annualized churn rate of 4-5% over the past three years, and is expected to continue improving profit margins [2] - Profit forecasts remain unchanged, with core operating profit expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, reaching 1.83 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan respectively [2] - The target price has been raised by 8% to 6.0 HKD, corresponding to a 19 times target P/E ratio for 2025, indicating an 18% upside potential [2]
绿城服务(02869.HK)：提质增效超预期兑现 行业变化中逆势破局