Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with new housing prices showing a decrease in month-on-month (MoM) but a smaller year-on-year (YoY) decline. The second-hand housing prices are experiencing a similar trend, with a YoY decline narrowing while the MoM decline is expanding [8][19][26]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In June 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.3%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively, with a total of 70 cities showing a MoM decline of -0.3%, which is a 0.1 percentage point increase in decline compared to May [14][15]. - The YoY decline for new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities was -1.4%, -3.0%, and -4.6% respectively, leading to an overall YoY decline of 3.7% for 70 cities, which is a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [14][15]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing prices in June 2025 saw a MoM decline of -0.6%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -0.7%, -0.6%, and -0.6% respectively. This represents an increase in the decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to May [19][21]. - The YoY decline for second-hand housing prices across 70 cities was -6.1%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -3.0%, -5.8%, and -6.7% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the decline for some tiers [19][22]. Regional Performance - In June 2025, Shanghai led the new housing market with a MoM increase of +0.4% and a YoY increase of +6.0%. Among the 35 key cities, only Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan saw YoY increases in new housing prices [26][27]. - The second-hand housing prices in June across 35 cities showed a decline, with only Xining experiencing a MoM increase of +0.1%. The overall trend indicates a consistent decline in second-hand housing prices since early 2024 [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong credit real estate companies that are well-positioned to meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][26]. - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].

Core Insights - The property management industry is experiencing a significant trend of companies voluntarily exiting projects due to various operational challenges and financial pressures [1][3][5] - The turnover rate of residential property management has increased from 1.7% in 2021 to 3.3% in 2024, indicating a growing willingness among homeowners to change property management companies [7][10] Group 1: Company Exits - China Overseas Property announced its exit from the Ezhou Shuangchuang Star community by August 31, 2025, due to low occupancy rates and high unpaid fees, with a total outstanding amount of 595,900 yuan as of January 2025 [1][4] - Jin Ke Service will withdraw from Chongqing Hengchun Phoenix City by August 31, 2025, citing reduced property fees and legacy issues from developers leading to losses [1][4] - Longfor Property is set to exit Shanghai Su Di Chun Xiao community by August 2025 due to unresolved historical issues causing operational risks [1][4] Group 2: Industry Trends - A report by CRIC shows that from 2021 to 2024, the residential property turnover rate has increased, suggesting a trend where approximately 20,000 residential communities change property management annually [2][7] - Many property management companies, including Wanwu Cloud, Shimao Service, and others, have publicly announced their termination and exit from various projects in their 2024 annual reports [2][3] - The ongoing dissatisfaction among homeowners regarding property services has led to a rise in the number of homeowners seeking to change property management companies [10][11] Group 3: Financial Pressures - The primary reasons for property management companies exiting projects include rising costs, declining collection rates, and insufficient growth in value-added services [5][6] - In 2024, Wanwu Cloud exited 53 residential projects, impacting a saturated income of 286 million yuan, while Shimao Service and others also reported significant areas of project exits [6][5] - Companies are increasingly focusing on high-quality growth, prioritizing high-capacity cities and quality clients, as evidenced by China Overseas Property's increase in new contract amounts in core urban areas [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is still in a destocking trend, with new housing market conditions remaining challenging despite some policy support aimed at stabilizing expectations and promoting recovery [4][32] - The report highlights the importance of strong product capability and inventory management in identifying quality real estate companies for investment [5] Summary by Sections Industry Data - New housing transaction volume in 34 key cities decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 2% increase while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 38% decline [6] - In July, the cumulative transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities dropped by 25% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities also down by 25% [9][10] - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities decreased by 1% week-on-week, with a current available area of 88.85 million square meters [23] Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need for multi-faceted approaches to stabilize expectations and promote recovery in the real estate market [32][33] - Local policies include the expansion of housing provident fund loans in Nanjing and new policies in Hainan and Guangzhou to facilitate housing loans [32][33] Company Dynamics - Vanke has applied for a loan of up to 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group, marking the sixth loan transaction this year [5] - Poly Developments reported sales of 29 billion yuan, down 31% year-on-year, while China Overseas Development reported 29.7 billion yuan, down 36% [5] - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management, including companies like China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with sales data in May indicating a slight improvement compared to April [8] - The overall sales area of commercial housing in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 3.41 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [5][14] - The new housing market is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend in June, driven by increased marketing efforts from real estate companies and a rise in supply [32] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first five months of 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 353 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [5][14] - The sales area in May alone saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, while the sales amount dropped by 6.0% [5][14] - The average sales price in May decreased by 2.8% year-on-year but increased by 2.5% month-on-month, indicating a trend of price adjustments [5][14] Construction Data - The new housing starts in the first five months of 2025 totaled 232 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year [6][21] - The completion area for housing was 184 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.3% [6][21] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in the first five months of 2025 reached 3.62 trillion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year [7][24] - The funding available to real estate developers decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with various funding sources showing significant declines [28][29] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include strong credit real estate companies that understand customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [32] - Companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies include China Resources Land and Longfor Group [32]

Core Insights - The property management industry in China is experiencing a modest revenue growth of 4% in 2024, with total revenue reaching 293.87 billion yuan [1][17] - The average revenue per listed property company is 4.665 billion yuan, with a median of 1.74 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0% and 11.3% respectively [1][17] - The industry is facing challenges due to economic uncertainties and the need for structural adjustments and upgrades [2] Capital Market Performance - The property sector continues to underperform compared to the broader market, with the Hang Seng Property Services Index declining by 5.8% in 2024 [2][4] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) show stronger resilience in stock performance, with an average stock price change of 35.1%, while private enterprises saw a decline of 10.7% [4] - The average dividend payout ratio for listed property companies reached 91.3%, indicating an attractive investment value [7] Valuation - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for listed property companies increased to approximately 9.9, up from 9.7 in the previous year [11] - The valuation of property stocks has seen fluctuations, with a historical low of 8.4 times and a peak of 12.8 times in 2023 [11] Market Capitalization - The number of property companies with a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion yuan increased to 7, while companies with a market cap below 3 billion yuan account for 75.8% of the total [14] Operational Scale Analysis - The revenue growth rate for the property management sector has slowed to 4.0%, down 3.7 percentage points from the previous year [29] - The total managed area for listed property companies grew to 7.66 billion square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.3% [35] Revenue Growth Rate - The revenue growth rate for head companies is 5.7%, while large companies are experiencing negative growth at -0.2% [32] - Small and medium-sized companies also saw a decline in revenue growth rates, with small companies at 2.4% [32] Profitability Analysis - The average gross profit margin for listed property companies decreased to 19.0%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [65] - The average net profit margin also fell to 4.2%, reflecting the pressures from reduced property fees and rising labor costs [65] Employment and Tax Contributions - The total tax contribution from 62 listed property companies was approximately 6.52 billion yuan, with head companies contributing nearly 70% of the total [130] - The employment numbers remained stable, with 54 listed companies employing around 1.035 million people [131] ESG Management - Property companies are increasingly focusing on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) management, with many implementing energy management systems and promoting green operations [135][136] - Despite progress, challenges remain in standardizing carbon reduction and social responsibility initiatives [136]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The property management industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with a focus on improving project quality as companies exit low-margin projects and enhance service quality [5][8] - The REITs market is expected to continue expanding, driven by policy support and the attractiveness of high-dividend assets in a declining interest rate environment [7][8] Summary by Sections Property Management Industry Overview - As of the end of 2024, the property management industry in China managed a total area of 314.1 billion square meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [5][16] - The average growth rate of managed area for the top 100 property management companies has decreased to 2%, indicating a trend of slowing expansion [16][21] Performance and Financials - Revenue growth for the top property management companies remains steady but has declined to single digits, with profitability under pressure due to increased competition and declining real estate sales [44][46] - The average cash on hand for sample companies remains robust, with a stable dividend payout ratio, indicating financial resilience [58][60] Development Opportunities in 2025 - The industry is expected to benefit from three main directions: enhancing service quality under the "Good House, Good Service" concept, leveraging AI for operational efficiency, and capitalizing on urban renewal opportunities driven by housing pension policies [6][8][89] REITs Market Trends - The REITs market has shown significant structural differentiation, with anti-cyclical sectors performing well while cyclical sectors face challenges. Future growth is anticipated in areas supported by policy, such as elderly care and new infrastructure [7][8][20]

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 提质增效成果显著，现金充裕分红慷慨 ——绿城服务（2869.HK）2024 年度业绩点评 要点 事件：绿城服务 2024 年营收同比+6.5%，归母净利润同比+29.7%。 4 月 24 日，绿城服务发布 2024 年年度报告，期内实现营收 185 亿元（含 MAG， 公司在年内出售 MAG，为便于与上年比较，公司在损益表披露终止经营业务影 响下的收入和利润，而在管理层讨论与分析中未加以区分，下同），同比增长 6.5%，实现毛利 32 亿元，同比增长 9.7%，毛利率 17.3%，同比提升 0.5pct； 核心经营利润（毛利-行政开支-营销开支）15.9 亿元，同比增长 22.5%；归母净 利润 7.9 亿元，同比增长 29.7%。 点评：基本面优秀，核心业务稳健，提质增效成果显著，分红慷慨。 1）基本面优秀，核心业务稳健。2024 年公司物管/园区服务/咨询服务分别实现 收入 124.0/33.7/24.1 亿元，同比+11.7%/-5.5%/+5.1%，截至 2024 年末，公 司在管面积 5 亿平，稳居行业第一梯队，储备面积 3.6 亿平，未来可持续增长能 力较 ...

Financial Performance - The Group reported a comprehensive income of HK$XX million for the year ended December 31, 2024, representing a Y/Y increase of XX%[22] - The total revenue for the reporting period was HK$XX million, reflecting a growth of XX% compared to the previous year[22] - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the company's revenue reached RMB 18,527.76 million, representing a 6.5% increase compared to the previous year[31] - The gross profit for the same period was RMB 3,196.67 million, with a gross margin of 17.3%, showing a 9.7% increase in gross profit year-over-year[31] - Net profit attributable to equity shareholders for the year was RMB 785.08 million, reflecting a 29.7% increase compared to the previous year[31] - The net profit margin for the year was 4.7%, calculated as profit attributable to equity shareholders divided by revenue[32] - Profit for the year was RMB 867.4 million, representing a 21.1% increase from RMB 716.1 million in 2023, with profit attributable to equity shareholders rising by 29.7% to RMB 785.1 million[120] - The net profit margin improved to 4.7%, up 0.6 percentage points from 4.1% in 2023[121] Revenue Breakdown - Property services accounted for 66.9% of overall revenue in 2024, indicating a focus on this segment[31] - Revenue from property services reached RMB 12,401.3 million, accounting for 66.9% of the Group's total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 11.7% from RMB 11,101.5 million in 2023[92] - Revenue from community living services was RMB 3,373.2 million, accounting for 18.2% of total revenue, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% from RMB 3,568.6 million in 2023[92] - Consulting services generated revenue of RMB 2,412.0 million, which is 13.0% of total revenue, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.1% compared to RMB 2,295.3 million in 2023[92] - Technology services revenue amounted to RMB 341.2 million, accounting for 1.9% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.3% from RMB 428.0 million in 2023[92] Market Expansion and Strategy - User data indicates that the Group has served over XX million residents, enhancing its market presence significantly[22] - The Group plans to expand its service offerings by introducing new technology services aimed at improving customer experience[22] - Future outlook includes a projected revenue growth of XX% for the upcoming fiscal year, driven by market expansion strategies[22] - The Group's market expansion strategy includes targeting new geographic regions within China to increase its customer base[22] - The Group is actively pursuing potential acquisitions to enhance its service portfolio and market reach[22] - The Group is committed to enhancing service quality and expanding its market presence, aiming for "high-quality development" in 2025[86] - The Group's strategic goal is to become the most valuable happiness service provider in China, adhering to a customer-oriented and quality-focused service strategy[90] Operational Efficiency and Innovation - The company plans to enhance its technology services to support digital transformation for clients, which is crucial for building a differentiated product system[27] - The community living services segment is evolving to meet the changing needs of property owners and residents, integrating online and offline services[27] - The Group aims to build a digital management center for industrial communities through smart community products[174] - The company reduced the management expense ratio by 0.5 percentage points through digital empowerment and precise operation[77] - AI-powered glasses, floor-cleaning robots, and customer service robots are in pilot deployment as part of the company's technological innovation strategy[78] Assets and Liabilities - Current assets as of December 31, 2023, amounted to RMB 12,111,712, up from RMB 10,840,595 in 2022[38] - Total assets reached RMB 18,081,669, an increase from RMB 16,853,692 in 2022[38] - Net assets as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 8,225,204, compared to RMB 7,876,143 in 2022[38] - The debt ratio decreased to 51.7% as of December 31, 2024, down 2.8 percentage points from 54.5% in 2023[131] - Trade and other receivables increased by 9.1% to RMB 5,576.6 million as of December 31, 2024, from RMB 5,113.9 million in 2023, due to business growth[136] Employee and Operational Costs - The Group's total staff costs increased by 5.7% to RMB 6,150.5 million in 2024, up from RMB 5,816.9 million in 2023, primarily due to new project deliveries and rising manpower costs[181] - As of December 31, 2024, the Group had 48,423 employees, representing a 5.2% increase compared to 2023[181] Future Plans and Investments - The Group plans to expand its community products and services, projecting a revenue increase of 11.7% for 2024[35] - The Group has not employed any financial instruments for hedging foreign exchange risks but will explore options with major banks[175] - The Group did not have any significant investments during the year[185] - As of December 31, 2024, the Group had no future plans for material investments and capital assets[193]