证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 房地产开发 2026W5：如何理解上海收储新政？ 上海启动收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房工作，模式联动刚需租赁和改 善置换，后续关注实际推进情况。此次浦东新区、静安区、徐汇区将作为 首批试点区，三区在收购范围、收购模式上有一定区别。我们认为，上海 作为核心城市，在市场深度下行的时点推动类收储政策，其信号意义较强。 同时，上海联动刚需（保障性租赁住房）与改善需求（置换），满足保障房 筹集任务、改善市场供需，而且收购范围锚定在低总价小面积房源，收购 后将相关购买力定向引导至总价段更高的新房/二手房市场，有望释放政 策杠杆效应，并且可能打通更高价位段房源的置换链条，以激活市场。试 点三区在收购范围、模式上有细微差别，或也有"摸着石头过河"的意味， 如模式走通，也有望在全市开展更广泛的收购工作。因此，后续应重点关 注三区实际推进的情况，真实政策效力取决于实际做了多少。 以春节周开始和结束日期为锚进行周度对齐。春节前第 2 周，样本城市新 房成交面积为 112.5 万方（同比-45.1%），样本城市二手房成交面积为 183.7 万方 ...

证券分析师 行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 08 日 商业不动产REITs密集申报，上海收购 二手住房用于保租房 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/1/31-2026/2/6） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 相关研究 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、二 ...

前言： 存量运营时代，"好服务"已成为行业突破困境、实现高质量发展的核心议题，为深入探讨物业服务质量提升行动的落地路径， 中指研究院围绕"行业困境—价值重构—标准建设—科技赋能—资产运营"开展系列专题研究，并于2026年1月29日举办了"品质 物管'好服务'系列主题分享会——如何落实物业服务质量提升行动？"，点击链接可以观看分享会精彩观点与直播回放。 "好服务"系列专题文章： 当下，伴随着宏观经济与房地产市场的下行，新房市场持续调整，根据国家统计局的公开信息，2025年房屋新开工面积同比下 降20.4%。在此背景下，物业管理行业已经从关注新房项目的增量市场，逐渐转变为重视存量项目管理、存量资产运营的存量市 场。同时，物业企业的增长动力也出现转变，从抢占新增项目的市场空间，转向深挖现有的客户与项目价值，开展存量资产运 营的重要性正在持续提升。 那么，对于物业企业而言，开展存量资产运营的意义是什么？存量资产运营应当通过哪些途径落地实施？增值服务之于存量资 产运营有着什么样的价值，又应当基于什么样的原则去执行？当前政策多次提及的"物业服务+生活服务"模式又该如何落地？本 文将从以上问题出发，探究当下物业管理行业通过 ...

该行认为绿城服务目前估值具吸引力，2026至2028年预测每股盈利年复合增长率达10%。同时，公司亦 积极回馈股东，除进行股份回购外，基于70%至75%的派息比率，其2025及26年预测股息收益率可达5% 至6%。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，绿城服务(02869)凭借优质的服务能力，能够抵御内地物管行 业在定价及收费方面所面临的压力，并使公司在市场整合过程中成为长期的受惠者。此外，潜在的房地 产刺激措施亦可能改善投资者对物管板块的情绪。因此，该行将绿城服务的评级由"中性"上调至"买 入"，目标价由上调20%至6港元。 ...

该行认为绿城服务目前估值具吸引力，2026至2028年预测每股盈利年复合增长率达10%。同时，公司亦 积极回馈股东，除进行股份回购外，基于70%至75%的派息比率，其2025及26年预测股息收益率可达5% 至6%。 美银证券发布研报称，绿城服务(02869)凭借优质的服务能力，能够抵御内地物管行业在定价及收费方 面所面临的压力，并使公司在市场整合过程中成为长期的受惠者。此外，潜在的房地产刺激措施亦可能 改善投资者对物管板块的情绪。因此，该行将绿城服务的评级由"中性"上调至"买入"，目标价由上调 20%至6港元。 ...

美银证券发表研报指，认为绿城服务凭借优质的服务能力，能够抵御内地物管行业在定价及收费方面所 面临的压力，并使公司在市场整合过程中成为长期的受惠者。此外，潜在的房地产刺激措施亦可能改善 投资者对物管板块的情绪。该行将绿城服务的评级由"中性"上调至"买入"，目标价由上调20%至6港 元。该行认为绿城服务目前估值具吸引力，2026至2028年预测每股盈利年复合增长率达10%。同时，公 司亦积极反馈股东，除进行股份回购外，基于70%至75%的派息比率，其2025及26年预测股息收益率可 达5%至6%。 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation of the "Tax Law Principle" and its implications for service industries such as internet and finance, indicating that current tax arrangements are unlikely to change significantly in the short term [2][3][12] - The real estate sector is experiencing a favorable shift in financing policies, with REITs and private placements opening new equity financing channels to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [3][13] Tax Law Implementation - The State Council approved the "Implementation Regulations of the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" on December 19, 2025, and subsequent announcements have clarified tax details, suggesting stability in tax arrangements for service industries [2][3][12] - The definition of "basic services" in telecommunications is evolving, with mobile data and internet broadband still classified as "value-added services" subject to a 6% VAT rate, while traditional voice services are recognized as "basic services" with a 9% VAT rate [2][3][12] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The financing environment for the real estate industry is improving, with a shift from debt financing to equity financing, including the introduction of REITs and private placements [3][13] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the gradual retreat from the "three red lines" policy, indicate a more supportive financing environment for real estate companies [13] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in the industry as financing policies become more favorable [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several quality real estate companies for investment, including China Jinmao, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others, due to their potential for recovery and attractive valuations [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving financing landscape and the impact of government policies on the real estate market [3][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a potential investment return that exceeds the market benchmark index by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - As of early 2026, multiple regions have initiated old housing acquisitions, significantly accelerating the "old-for-new" program, supported by a reduction in the central bank's one-year relending rate from 1.5% to 1.25% [1][3]. - Local governments are actively engaging in funding through various means, including fiscal support and bank loans, to facilitate the acquisition and renovation of old housing, thereby enhancing the supply of affordable rental housing [3]. - The report highlights that the government's direct acquisition of second-hand old houses is an effective measure to streamline the housing exchange process, reduce the exchange cycle, and simplify procedures, ultimately promoting the sales of new homes [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Old Housing Acquisition - The "old-for-new" service has been launched in various cities, with Shanghai and Hangzhou being notable examples where initial registrations have been completed and dynamic waiting lists established for families wishing to participate [1][2]. - Specific focus areas include older properties in urban centers, with clear ownership and reasonable pricing, aimed at facilitating housing exchanges for those in need [2]. Section 2: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, public funds held a mere 0.43% of their stock investment value in the real estate sector, indicating a significant underweight compared to standard industry allocation [4]. - The report suggests that high-energy cities are likely to benefit from urban renewal initiatives, leading to structural optimization and gradual stabilization of the market [5]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Real estate companies with strong credit advantages and high product reputation in core cities, such as China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [5]. 2. Public REITs with rich existing resources and strong operational brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [5]. 3. Long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and Greentown Service [5].

Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown a decline of 2.1% over the past week, ranking 17th among 29 sectors in the market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and the Wind All A index experienced changes of 0.1% and -1.6% respectively [5][38]. - New home sales in 36 cities reached 1.425 million square meters last week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 146.5%. However, cumulative sales from January 1 to January 30 totaled 5.398 million square meters, down 30.3% year-on-year [5][10]. - The second-hand housing market saw a total transaction area of 1.706 million square meters across 15 cities last week, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.7% but a significant year-on-year increase of 744.4%. Cumulative sales for the same period reached 6.739 million square meters, up 15.8% year-on-year [5][16]. Real Estate Market Conditions - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7.7738 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average de-stocking period is 23.0 months, which is stable compared to the previous week but has increased by 6.7 months year-on-year [5][24]. - In terms of land transactions, the total area sold in 100 cities from January 26 to February 1 was 1.7955 million square meters, marking a week-on-week increase of 49.2% and a year-on-year increase of 419.7%. The average land price was 979 yuan per square meter, down 28.0% week-on-week and down 74.4% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - For mainland developers, the report recommends companies such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou in A-shares, and China Overseas Development and Greentown China in Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that sales growth expectations post-market recovery will drive valuation improvements [5][9]. - Light asset operation companies are also recommended, as they are expected to maintain stable fundamentals during the downturn. Suggested companies include Greentown Service for property management and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle for commercial management [5][9]. - For Hong Kong developers, the report suggests focusing on companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development, which are expected to benefit from a recovering residential sales market [5][9]. Financing Conditions - In the realm of domestic credit bonds, real estate companies issued a total of 8 bonds last week, amounting to 4.96 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 42.9% week-on-week but an increase of 346.3% year-on-year. The net financing amount was -3.97 billion yuan due to repayments totaling 8.93 billion yuan [5][36].

呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 綠城服務集團有限公司 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02869 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 38,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.00001 HKD | | | 380,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 38,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0. ...