马斯克救不了特斯拉

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Tesla's declining performance in 2025, highlighting significant drops in revenue, net profit, and vehicle sales, alongside challenges in its key business segments, including Full Self-Driving (FSD) and carbon credit sales, exacerbated by regulatory changes. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Tesla reported revenue of $41.83 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, with vehicle sales revenue down 17.9% [1] - Net profit for H1 2025 was $1.61 billion, down 42.9% year-on-year, with total vehicle deliveries at 721,000, a decline of 13.2% [1] - The carbon credit trading, which contributed 38.6% to net profit in 2024, saw revenue drop from $890 million in Q2 2024 to $440 million in Q2 2025, indicating a potential further decline [1] Group 2: Product and Market Challenges - Tesla's FSD business generated $428 million in revenue in H1 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, raising concerns about its long-term viability [1] - The anticipated Model 2/Q has faced delays, with its release pushed back multiple times, impacting sales expectations [10][11] - Tesla's main models, Model 3 and Model Y, have not seen significant upgrades since their launches in 2016 and 2019, leading to consumer fatigue [6][7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Tesla's reliance on high-nickel batteries poses risks due to thermal runaway concerns, while competitors are advancing with 800V architectures that enhance charging efficiency [8][9] - The company has been slow to innovate compared to Chinese competitors, which have rapidly adapted to market demands [6][8] - The introduction of lower-priced models is critical for regaining market share, but the timing of Model 2/Q's launch may have missed the optimal market window [12][11] Group 4: Regulatory and Market Environment - The cancellation of federal tax credits and weakening of ZEV credit policies under the new administration have negatively impacted Tesla's carbon credit revenue, which fell by 50.7% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [36][37] - The overall market for electric vehicles is becoming increasingly competitive, with numerous alternatives available at lower price points, further challenging Tesla's sales [12][11]