拼多多：重回摇钱树？

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, leading to a temporary stock price surge, but the overall growth remains stable and lacks significant surprises [1][17]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for Q2 reached approximately 104 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7%, aligning closely with market expectations after two consecutive quarters of underperformance [2][39]. - The revenue growth rate continues to slow, primarily due to the impact of Temu's transition from a fully managed to a semi-managed model, which has affected revenue recognition [3][40]. Advertising Revenue - Core advertising revenue grew by 13.4% year-on-year, consistent with market expectations, indicating that the growth of Pinduoduo's main platform has stabilized [4][41]. - The narrowing trend in advertising monetization rates appears to have ended, suggesting that Pinduoduo's growth advantage over competitors may have diminished [5][6]. Temu's Performance - Temu's commission-based revenue for the quarter was approximately 48.3 billion RMB, showing less than 1% year-on-year growth, which was anticipated by the market [7][45]. - Despite the challenges posed by increased tariffs in the U.S., Temu's overall GMV growth is estimated to have remained above 40% due to rapid adaptation and market expansion efforts [9][48]. Marketing Expenditure - Marketing expenses were significantly lower than expected, totaling 27.2 billion RMB, which was nearly 8 billion RMB less than anticipated, contributing to the profit exceeding expectations [10][57]. - The reduction in marketing spending is attributed to decreased investment in the main platform, reflecting a potential improvement in competitive positioning [12][59]. Profitability - The overall operating profit margin improved to nearly 25%, up from 17% in the previous quarter, with actual operating profit around 25.8 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 4.3 billion RMB [14][63]. - Although net profit reached 30.8 billion RMB, influenced by investment income, the underlying profitability remains strong as long as expenses are managed effectively [15][64]. Future Outlook - The company is likely to maintain a certain level of subsidies in its main platform to counterbalance its relative disadvantages in the market, especially in light of competitors' strong performance [20][24]. - Temu's long-term growth potential remains uncertain, but the recent shift towards a more diversified market approach may enhance its resilience against single-market dependencies [28][31].