“上半年强劲、下半年压制”！高盛总结英伟达股价规律，“年底前难以跑赢大盘”

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price is expected to face challenges in the coming months due to a lack of new catalysts, despite a strong long-term growth outlook from Goldman Sachs [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance Patterns - Nvidia's stock typically performs well in the first half of the year, driven by positive capital expenditure guidance from major clients like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google, leading to a 149% increase in the first half of 2024 [1][3]. - In the second half of the year, Nvidia's stock often struggles due to the absence of new hard data to boost market expectations, resulting in only a 12% increase in the second half of 2024 [1][4]. - Historical patterns show that in 2023, Nvidia's stock surged 189% in the first half but only rose 17% in the second half due to concerns about the sustainability of spending [4]. Group 2: Key Variables Influencing Future Performance - The stock's performance in the latter part of 2025 will depend on three key variables: comments from major clients during their Q3 earnings reports in October, the timeline for the launch of Nvidia's next-generation "Rubin" platform, and clarity regarding Nvidia's business in China amid evolving U.S. export controls [3][4]. - Any quantitative insights regarding 2026 capital expenditures from major clients will be crucial for market sentiment [3][4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term caution, Goldman Sachs maintains a positive long-term outlook for Nvidia, expecting exceptional growth in 2026 driven by strong capital expenditure from cloud providers and demand from non-traditional customers [2][5]. - Goldman Sachs has a "buy" rating on Nvidia with a 12-month target price of $200, based on a standardized EPS of $5.75 and a 35x P/E ratio [5]. Group 4: Insights on Other AI-related Companies - For Broadcom, a similar trading dynamic to Nvidia is expected in the second half of 2025, with new customer data being critical for stock performance [6]. - AMD's potential growth in data center GPUs for 2026 is already reflected in its current stock price, with an upcoming investor day seen as a key event [6]. - Marvell's stock is anticipated to remain range-bound for the remainder of the year, with growth visibility from Amazon and Microsoft in 2026 being pivotal for stock movement [6].