Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a positive outlook on COFCO Joycome (01610), projecting net profits of 760 million and 1.15 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price increase of 39% to HKD 2.5, indicating a potential upside of 33% [1] Group 1: Pig Farming and Fresh Meat Business - The pig farming segment is experiencing high-quality growth, with revenue for 1H25 increasing by 68.7% to 4.494 billion yuan, driven by an 83% increase in slaughter volume to 2.899 million heads [2] - The fresh pork segment has shown significant improvement, with revenue rising by 21% to 2.54 billion yuan, and brand revenue share increasing by 4.5 percentage points to 31.2% [2] - The sales volume of branded boxed pork surged by 47% to 27.79 million boxes, while sales of flaxseed pork increased by 123% [2] Group 2: Cost Management and Financial Health - The company has successfully reduced farming costs, with total costs estimated at 13.0-13.5 yuan per kilogram in 2Q25, and further optimization expected in 2H25 due to improved breeding efficiency and the "company + farmer" model [3] - The financial position remains robust, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.2% at the end of 1H25, reflecting a slight increase due to the acquisition of COFCO Jiahua [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company is enhancing its light-asset model to increase the flexibility of pig farming output, with a target slaughter volume of 5-6 million heads for 2025 [4] - The brand strategy is yielding results, with efforts to improve product quality and expand sales channels, which is expected to gradually enhance profit contributions [4]
中金：维持中粮家佳康跑赢行业评级 升目标价至2.5港元