YILI(SH:600887) 3 6 Ke·2025-08-26 02:24Market Overview - The ice cream category has shown a downward trend in both sales and volume from 2023 to 2025, with sales index dropping from 100 in 2023 to 86.67 in 2025, and volume index decreasing from 100 to 94.18 [4][6] - The decline in sales is attributed to consumers shifting from high-priced products to lower-priced options, rather than fluctuations in price levels [4][6] Price Level and Consumer Behavior - The price index for ice cream has remained above 100 since September 2024, indicating a year-on-year increase in price levels, contrasting with the previous two years of significant price drops [6] - Despite the price recovery, the overall sales scale remains under pressure due to changes in consumer preferences and budget constraints [6][19] Brand and Market Concentration - The market concentration for ice cream has remained stable, with the top 10 groups (CR10) holding a market share of 65.5% in 2025, slightly down from 66.5% in 2023 [9] - The number of brands and groups in the ice cream category has continued to grow, indicating increased competition without significantly altering the overall market structure [11][9] Product Packaging Trends - Non-combination packs dominate the market, maintaining a share of around 95%, while combination packs account for less than 5% [13][15] - The average specifications for non-combination products have remained stable, while combination products have shown more variability, reflecting changing consumer preferences for value [17] Pricing Trends by Segment - The market is shifting towards lower-priced products, with the share of the 0-1 yuan price segment increasing from 7.67% to 9.60% from 2023 to 2025 [24] - The number of SKUs in lower price segments has expanded significantly, while high-priced segments have seen limited growth, indicating a consumer preference for value-oriented products [26] New Product Development - The number of new SKUs in the ice cream category has been declining, with non-combination products still dominating but decreasing from 309 to 225, while combination products dropped from 47 to 21 [33] - New product launches are increasingly occurring earlier in the year, allowing brands to better prepare for peak seasons [33] Competitive Landscape - The top 10 groups in the ice cream market have experienced slight declines in market share and sales, with Yili maintaining the largest share at approximately 33% despite a small decrease in sales [38][36] - The competitive dynamics among brands show that while some brands like Yili and Ice Factory are growing, others like Mengniu and Dream Dragon are facing declines in both market share and sales [41][36] Future Outlook - The ice cream category is expected to see new entrants from various sectors, as brands from other categories are increasingly launching ice cream products to capture market share [63][65] - The overall market is anticipated to continue evolving, with a focus on value and affordability as key consumer trends [61][65]