Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-26 02:33Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly regarding potential rate cuts in September [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that if the August non-farm payroll number is below 100,000, a rate cut in September is almost certain [4]. - The market's expectation for a September rate cut has decreased from 65% to 42% following the release of various economic indicators that fell within reasonable expectations [3]. Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the August non-farm payroll increase may only be 80,000, which would lower the three-month average to 35,000, significantly below the previous market estimate of 150,000 [5]. - Concerns about the reliability of employment data are raised, particularly due to the "birth-death model" used in non-farm statistics, which has an estimation bias of 12,000 [5]. - Recent economic indicators show a 0.4% increase in consumer spending and a narrowing decline in business investment to 0.2%, but the trend remains unstable [5].