天风证券：9月银行兑现浮盈压力预计不大 季末配置仍具吸引力

Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities reports a downward trend in deposit costs due to interest rate cuts and the release of existing benefits, with an average deposit cost rate decline of 25-30 basis points expected in the first half of 2025, surpassing the reductions seen in 2024 [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Deposit Costs - The average deposit cost rate for listed banks is projected to decline to 1.6-1.65% in the first half of 2025, with further reductions anticipated throughout the year [5] - The downward trend in deposit costs is supported by the maturity of high-interest fixed-term deposits in the second half of the year, which is expected to enhance the improvement in deposit costs [3][5] Loan Rates - Loan rates for new corporate loans and mortgages have stabilized at approximately 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, due to improved supply-demand dynamics and regulatory support aimed at lowering financing costs for the real economy [2] - The decline in loan rates this year is expected to be the smallest since the LPR reform in 2019, indicating a stabilization in asset pricing for banks [2] Market Conditions - The banking sector's trading and allocation performance in the gold market is under pressure compared to last year's bull market, with capital gains significantly reduced due to increased interest rate volatility [4] - The banking sector is likely to maintain a strategy of "stabilizing stock and selecting opportunities for allocation" due to the high base of profits from the previous year and the current performance of the gold market [4] Financial Performance - Despite potential scaling down in asset growth, banks are expected to see some relief in net interest margin (NIM) and revenue growth pressures due to favorable pricing in the deposit and loan segments [3] - The financial performance of the gold market is anticipated to face challenges in meeting key performance indicators (KPIs) for the year, with limited motivation to boost profit bases for 2026 through the sale of old bonds [4]