大摩改变立场：从“不信今年降息”到“预期9月降息”

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has shifted its stance, now predicting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December, contrasting its previous view of maintaining rates until March 2026 [1][2] - The catalyst for this change was Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference, where he expressed increased concern over potential risks in the labor market [1][2] - Market expectations have rapidly adjusted, with traders now estimating an 81.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September according to LSEG data [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley noted a significant shift in the Fed's policy focus from inflation and low unemployment to potential risks in the labor market [2] - The bank anticipates two rate cuts this year, followed by quarterly cuts of 25 basis points starting next year until the benchmark rate reaches a range of 2.75%-3.0% by 2026 [2] - Analysts highlighted that a substantial decline in employment data would be necessary for the Fed to consider larger cuts beyond 25 basis points [2] Group 3 - Political pressure is increasing from Washington, with former President Trump announcing plans to replace Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud, which could create vacancies and alter the power balance within the FOMC [3]