Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-26 09:33Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that following Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, Wall Street banks are adjusting their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Morgan Stanley now predicting rate cuts starting in September [1][2] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut in September and another in December, with quarterly cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 until the target rate reaches 2.75%-3.0% [1] - Powell's shift in tone regarding labor market risks indicates a potential preemptive adjustment in monetary policy to address downside risks in the labor market [1] Group 2 - Following Powell's comments, several international banks, including Barclays and Deutsche Bank, have revised their forecasts to predict a 25 basis point cut in September and two cuts within the year [2] - The likelihood of a September rate cut has increased from 75% to 87% according to CME Group's FedWatch tool after Powell's speech [2] - American Bank remains the only major Wall Street firm predicting that the Fed will not cut rates this year [2]