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中海物业(2669.HK):营收增速有所放缓 发力城市运营赛道

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 7.09 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 770 million yuan, also up 4%, but below the company's guidance for double-digit growth for the full year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's basic property management revenue grew by 8% year-on-year, achieving stable growth despite a net increase in managed area of only 5 million square meters compared to the end of 2024, due to the exit from low-quality projects [1] - The gross profit margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 17.0%, with the basic property management and household value-added service gross margins rising by 0.1 and 5.0 percentage points to 15.5% and 35.2%, respectively [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim basic dividend of 0.09 HKD and a special dividend of 0.01 HKD, resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 40% [2] Group 2: Market Strategy and Operations - The company faced a 5% year-on-year decline in new external contract value, totaling 980 million yuan, but showed improvement in project quality, with the average new external contract value for million-level projects increasing by 17% to 23.2 million yuan [2] - The company is focusing on urban operation sectors, with new external contract value for urban operations increasing by 60% to 620 million yuan [2] - The company continues to leverage its differentiated advantages in the Hong Kong and Macau regions, maintaining the top market share in Hong Kong property management [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the ongoing exit from low-quality projects and pressure on value-added services, the company has revised its revenue forecasts, expecting EPS of 0.48, 0.52, and 0.57 yuan for 2025-2027, down 6%, 10%, and 13% from previous estimates [2] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is projected at 16 times, while the company is considered to have a reasonable PE of 14 times, leading to a target price adjustment to 7.36 HKD from 7.74 HKD [2]