证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 07 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W36：本周新房成交同比-11.2%，深圳跟进放松限购 9 月 5 日，深圳跟进放松限购，整体力度较北京上海更大。对比新政前后 变化，第一，新政后限购范围进一步缩小，目前深圳执行较严格的限购政 策区域仅剩下福田区、南山区、宝安区的新安街道。第二，次核心区限购 政策进一步宽松，包括罗湖区、宝安区（不含新安街道）、龙岗区等满足购 房条件则不限购房套数；如不满足购房条件则限购 2 套，这里相较此前北 京、上海的外围定向放松力度更大，不仅向不满足购房条件的人群放松限 购，同时放松了罗湖，且从购房条件对比看，深圳也相对更宽松。第三， 外围部分区域全面取消限购，盐田区、大鹏新区不再审核购房资格，也较 北京、上海更进一步。我们预计深圳本次新政的边际效果或较北京、上海 更明显。具体深圳新政内容，详见本篇报告末尾表格。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为-1.5%，落后沪深 300 指 数 0.67 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 24 名。 投资建议：维持行业"增持"评级。我们认为重点关注房地产相关股 ...

高盛发布研报称，中海物业(02669)凭借更稳定的业务前景及其来自国企母公司中国海外发展(00688)的 坚实支持，表现优于同行，但认为其相对于大市表现不佳的原因在于房地产市场持续逆风，这继续拖累 物业管理行业的业务前景和估值，以及中海物业自身盈利和盈利增长放缓，加上股东回报增长可见度较 低，该行对集团在2025年至2027年纯利预测平均下调11%，以反映收入预测平均降13%，料2025至27年 间收入年均复合增长5%，并降2025至27年自由现金流及经营现金流预测平均各16%及13%，其目标价由 6.1港元下调至5港元，其评级由"买入"一举降至"沽售"。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Overseas Property (02669) is performing better than its peers due to a more stable business outlook and strong support from its state-owned parent company, China Overseas Development (00688) [1] - The underperformance relative to the market is attributed to ongoing headwinds in the real estate market, which continue to drag down the business outlook and valuation of the property management industry [1] - The company's own profit and profit growth are slowing, and there is low visibility on shareholder return growth, leading to an average downward revision of 11% in net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2 - Revenue forecasts have been reduced by an average of 13%, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 5% in revenue from 2025 to 2027 [1] - Free cash flow and operating cash flow forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been lowered by an average of 16% and 13%, respectively [1] - The target price has been adjusted down from HKD 6.1 to HKD 5, and the rating has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Sell" [1]

高盛发布研报称，中海物业凭借更稳定的业务前景及来自国企母公司中国海外的坚实支持，表现优于同 行。但中海物业相对于大市表现不佳的原因在房地产市场持续逆风，这继续拖累物业管理行业的业务前 景和估值，以及中海物业自身盈利和盈利增长放缓，加上股东回报增长可预见度较低。高盛对中海物业 2025-2027年纯利预测平均下调11%，以反映收入预测平均降13%，预计2025-2027年间收入年均复合增 长5%，并降2025-2027年自由现金流及经营现金流预测平均各16%及13%。目标价由6.1港元下调至5港 元，评级由"买入"一举降至"沽售"。 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 公司名稱: 中海物業集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02669 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.001 | HKD | | 30,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.001 | HKD | | 30,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 30, ...

料下半年经营趋势平稳中或略有改善。上半年公司经营面临一定压力，展望下半年我们预计或略有改 善：一方面经历过去一年半的集中退盘，公司低效项目规模恢复至合理水平，后续退盘压力边际减弱； 另一方面，住户增值服务端，公司加大在资产运营服务以及部分居家生活服务的推进力度和业务覆盖范 围，预计对下半年的业务进展有一定支撑。 外拓大体平稳，在管项目持续换仓保持良性发展。2025 年上半年公司外拓年合约额约9.8 亿元（其中城 市运营占比超过60%），与去年同期大体持平；其中千万元级项目的年化合约额均值提升17%，外拓质 量保持平稳提升态势。上半年末在管面积较2024 年末净增加500 万平米，主要原因系上半年退盘2,680 万平米，对应包干制下的基础物业毛利率小幅提升0.1 个百分点至13.6%。 增值服务整体承压，细分资产运营及工程服务仍有韧性。2025 年上半年公司住户及非住户增值服务收 入体量均出现不同程度下行，主要系整体环境影响。住户增值服务方面，上半年收入同比下降12%至 6.1 亿元，其中房屋租售等社区资产运营服务收入同比实现增长6%，居家生活服务及商业运营收入同比 则下降26%；非住户增值服务端，与地产行业较 ...

外拓大体平稳，在管项目持续换仓保持良性发展 2025年上半年公司外拓年合约额约9.8亿元(其中城市运营占比超过60%)，与去年同期大体持平;其中千 万元级项目的年化合约额均值提升17%，外拓质量保持平稳提升态势。上半年末在管面积较2024年末净 增加500万平米，主要原因系上半年退盘2,680万平米，对应包干制下的基础物业毛利率小幅提升0.1个百 分点至13.6%。 增值服务整体承压，细分资产运营及工程服务仍有韧性 2025年上半年公司住户及非住户增值服务收入体量均出现不同程度下行，主要系整体环境影响。住户增 值服务方面，上半年收入同比下降12%至6.1亿元，其中房屋租售等社区资产运营服务收入同比实现增 长6%，居家生活服务及商业运营收入同比则下降26%;非住户增值服务端，与地产行业较为相关的交付 前查验等业务拖累整体收入增速，工程服务收入则保持双位数左右的增长。 综合收缴率略有改善，账款管理维持良性 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，基于对中海物业(02669)细分业务结构及毛利率调整，下调2025年 和2026年盈利预测5%和6%至16.0亿元和17.1亿元(同比分别增长6%和7%)。维持跑赢行业评级和 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the profit forecast for China Overseas Property (02669) for 2025 and 2026 by 5% and 6% to RMB 1.6 billion and RMB 1.71 billion, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% and 7% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance slightly missed market expectations, with revenue increasing by 4% to RMB 7.09 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders also rising by 4% to RMB 770 million [2] - The interim dividend per share is set at HKD 0.1, with a payout ratio of 40%, compared to 36% in 2024 and 35% in 1H24 [2] Group 2: Business Development - The company maintained stable external expansion, with a total annual contract value of approximately RMB 980 million in 1H25, remaining flat year-on-year, and the average annual contract value for projects worth over RMB 10 million increased by 17% [3] - The managed area increased by 5 million square meters compared to the end of 2024, primarily due to a reduction of 26.8 million square meters in the first half of the year, leading to a slight increase in the basic property gross profit margin by 0.1 percentage points to 13.6% [3] Group 3: Value-Added Services - Overall, value-added services faced pressure, with both residential and non-residential service revenues declining, primarily due to the overall market environment [4] - Revenue from residential value-added services decreased by 12% to RMB 610 million, while community asset operation services saw a 6% increase, and home life services and commercial operations dropped by 26% [4] - Non-residential value-added services were impacted by the real estate sector, while engineering services maintained double-digit growth [4] Group 4: Financial Management - The comprehensive collection rate showed slight improvement in 1H25, with the current collection rate increasing year-on-year, while the previous collection rate saw a slight decline [5] - Trade receivables grew by 1% year-on-year, which is lower than the revenue growth rate for the first half of the year [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stable or slightly improved operational trend in the second half of the year, as the scale of inefficient projects has returned to a reasonable level, reducing the pressure from project reductions [6] - The company is increasing efforts in asset operation services and expanding the coverage of certain home life services, which is expected to support business progress in the second half of the year [6]

展望全年，该行预计公司归母净利润有望实现按年正增长，但可能难以做到双位数增长；预计公司或将 继续推动派息率稳中有进，逐步提高股东回报。考虑到公司持续退出低质项目，以及增值服务相对承压 的经营表现，该行将2025至2027年每股盈利分别下调6%、10%、13%，至0.48元、0.52元、0.57元，目 标价从7.74港元微降至7.36港元。 华泰证券发表研究报告指出，中海物业今年上半年实现营收70.9亿元，按年增4%；归母净利润7.7亿 元，按年增4%，低于公司指引(全年归母净利润双位数增长)；公司营收增速有所放缓，主要由于继续退 出低质项目，以及增值服务的拖累。该行看好公司继续实现有质量的稳步增长，逐步提升派息率，维 持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that China Overseas Property achieved revenue of 7.09 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 770 million yuan, also up 4% year-on-year, but below the company's guidance for double-digit growth in annual net profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue growth has slowed down primarily due to the continued exit from low-quality projects and the drag from value-added services [1] - The firm expects the company to continue achieving quality steady growth and gradually increase its dividend payout ratio [1] - For the full year, the firm anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is likely to achieve positive year-on-year growth, but may struggle to reach double-digit growth [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The firm has adjusted the earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 downwards by 6%, 10%, and 13% respectively, to 0.48 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.57 yuan [1] - The target price has been slightly reduced from 7.74 HKD to 7.36 HKD [1] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to continue promoting a steady increase in its dividend payout ratio, gradually enhancing shareholder returns [1]