交银国际研究 公司更新 | 内地房地产 目标价 | 收盘价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5.31 港元 | 港元 | 6.30 | +18.6% | | | 中海物业 (2669 HK) | | | | | | 管理规模扩大支撑稳定增长，维持买入评级 | | | | | 资料来源：公司资料，交银国际预测 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 我们更新对中海物业的财务预测，并提供了 2027 年的业绩预测。我们看到利 润率在 2024 年触底反弹，预计 2025-27 年将基本保持稳定。同时，我们认为 公司将继续从中国海外发展和第三方获得新项目，以支持其未来三年的稳定 增长。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 4/24 8/24 12/24 4/25 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2669 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 7.12 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 4.05 | | 市 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 内地房地产 目标价 | 收盘价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5.31 港元 | 港元 | 6.30 | +18.6% | | | 中海物业 (2669 HK) | | | | | | 管理规模扩大支撑稳定增长，维持买入评级 | | | | | 我们更新对中海物业的财务预测，并提供了 2027 年的业绩预测。我们看到利 润率在 2024 年触底反弹，预计 2025-27 年将基本保持稳定。同时，我们认为 公司将继续从中国海外发展和第三方获得新项目，以支持其未来三年的稳定 增长。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 4/24 8/24 12/24 4/25 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2669 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 资料来源 : FactSet 不断扩大的管 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 14,024 million HKD in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1,511 million HKD, up by 12.5% [3][5]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to an increase in property management area and enhanced value-added services, with the gross profit margin rising from 15.9% to 16.6% [5][9]. - The company proposed a dividend of 0.095 HKD per share, an increase from 0.085 HKD in 2023, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [3][5]. Revenue Performance - The company reported a main business revenue of 14,024 million HKD for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7% projected for 2025 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 1,511 million HKD in 2024 to 1,870 million HKD by 2026, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [2][9]. Business Segments - The property management area increased to 431 million square meters, a 7.4% growth year-on-year, with third-party project area contributing 39.4% [7]. - The revenue from property management services rose to 76.1% of total revenue, up from 72.1% in 2023, indicating a strategic focus on core business [7]. Value-Added Services - The non-residential value-added services revenue decreased by 14.7% year-on-year to 1,829 million HKD, while residential value-added services revenue grew by 7.2% to 1,385 million HKD, maintaining its share of total revenue [8][9]. - The company is actively optimizing its service structure in response to the downturn in the real estate sector [8]. Financial Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.46 HKD in 2024 to 0.63 HKD by 2027, reflecting a consistent growth outlook [2][9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decline from 9.9 in 2025 to 7.2 by 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [2][9].

房地产服务 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520110003 分析师：侯希得 执业证书编号：S0740523080001 Email：houxd@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 3,283.96 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 3,283.96 | | 市价(港元) | 4.89 | | 市值(港百万元) | 16,058.57 | | 流通市值(港百万元) | 16,058.57 | Email：liyao01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 善》2024-09-06 中海物业（02669.HK） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 买入（维持） 评级： | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 20 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产/房地产 证券研究报告 中海物业（2669）公司年报点评 2025 年 04 月 02 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 股票数据 | 0[4Ta月b0le2_日S收to盘ck价I（nf港o]元） | 5.37 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 3.77-7.19 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3284 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 176 | 2024.09.02 《业务发展稳中向好，业态拓展量增质升》 2024.04.02 Tel:(021)23183953 Email:czy15598@haitong.com 投资评级 优于大市 维持 物管服务稳健增长，盈利能力修复向上 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 恒生指数对比 1M 2M 3M | 绝对涨幅（%） | 1.7 | 11.1 | 4.3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对涨幅（%） | -1.4 | 19.2 | 18.6 | 资料来源：海通证券研究所 分 ...

年报显示，2024年，中海物业实现营业收入140.24亿元（人民币，下同），同比增加7.5%；毛利23.26亿元，同比增加12.4%；毛利率16.6%，上年同期为 15.9%；公司普通股权持有人应占溢利15.11亿元，同比增加12.5%；在管面积较去年底增加7.4%至4.31亿平方米，来源于中建及中国海外集团、独立第三方 分别占比60.6%、39.4%。 从营收结构来看，物业管理服务依然是中海物业的主要收入来源，同比增长13.3%至106.7亿元，占总收入比重较2023年增加4个百分点至76.1%；停车位买卖 业务则同比下降27.9%至1.4亿元。与此同时，住户增值服务营收同比增长7.2%至13.8亿元，但由于非住户增值服务同比下降14.7%至18.3亿元，导致增值服务 收入整体同比下降6.5%至32.13亿元。 每经记者 陈利 每经编辑 魏文艺 "物业管理行业以往的高速增长不复存在，大型物企不再盲目追求扩规模，而是返璞归真，在维持稳定现金流和业务发展速度的基础上，专注于做精、做 透、做好服务质量。" 在3月27日举行的业绩发布会上，中海物业（HK02669，股价5.35港元，市值175.69亿港元）管理层表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company shows steady revenue growth and is actively expanding its non-residential business segments [5] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.02 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [5] - The gross profit for the same period was 2.33 billion HKD, with a growth of 12.4%, attributed to the increase in managed property area and enhanced value-added services [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 12.5% to 1.51 billion HKD [5] - The company is expanding its management scale, with a total of 2,232 managed properties across 167 cities, and a managed area increase of 7.4% to 430 million square meters [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6% for net profit attributable to the parent company [5] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.28 billion HKD, 16.50 billion HKD, and 17.90 billion HKD respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 8% [2][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.46 HKD in 2024 to 0.62 HKD in 2027 [2][7] Business Segments Performance - Property management services revenue grew by 13.3% to 10.67 billion HKD, accounting for 72.1% of total revenue [5] - The gross margin for property management services improved to 16.0% [5] - Value-added services revenue decreased by 6.5% to 3.21 billion HKD, with non-residential value-added services declining by 14.7% [5] - The sales of parking spaces dropped by 27.9% to 140 million HKD, with a total of 2,224 spaces sold [5] Financial Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 29.57% in 2024 to 23.27% in 2027 [2][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 10.39 in 2024 to 8.20 in 2027 [2][10] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 16.6% in 2024 to 17.1% in 2027 [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 14.02 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.51 billion RMB, up 13% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [1][2] - The company is focusing on high-quality development by exiting low-efficiency projects, which has improved profitability despite a slowdown in revenue growth [2] - The company’s community value-added services revenue grew by 7% to 1.38 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 25.5%, indicating resilience in this segment [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The basic property management revenue increased by 13% to 10.67 billion RMB, driven by a 7% increase in managed area to 430 million square meters [2] - The company exited 44.5 million square meters of managed area to optimize its business structure, which positively impacted profitability [2] - The gross margins for basic property management and overall improved by 1.3 and 0.7 percentage points to 14.0% and 16.6%, respectively [2] Market Expansion - The company’s market expansion focused on quality, with new contracts decreasing by 40% to 6.571 million square meters, but high-value projects in core urban areas increased significantly [3] - The active land acquisition by the China State Construction Engineering Corporation is expected to enhance the company’s future managed area growth resilience [3] Community Value-Added Services - The community value-added services segment saw a revenue increase of 31% in brokerage services to 260 million RMB, contributing to overall growth despite a slight decline in gross margin [4] - The company responded to market expectations for increased dividends, raising the payout ratio by 4 percentage points to 36%, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.3% based on the closing price [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 0.51 and 0.58 RMB, respectively, with a target price of 7.74 HKD based on a 25 PE ratio [5][8] - The report anticipates continued steady improvement in profitability for 2025 [2][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a current stock price of HKD 5.47 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 14.02 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was HKD 1.51 billion, up 12.5% year-on-year. The total proposed dividend for the year is HKD 0.18 per share [4][6]. - The company continues to expand its operational scale, with a managed area of 430 million square meters, a 7.4% increase year-on-year. The new signed contracts amounted to HKD 4.44 billion, with 63.3% of the new managed area coming from independent third parties [6][8]. - The report highlights an improvement in gross margin, which increased to 16.6%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced profitability in property management services [6][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024 Revenue: HKD 14.02 billion, 2025: HKD 15.16 billion, 2026: HKD 16.32 billion, 2027: HKD 17.48 billion [5][8]. - 2024 Net Profit: HKD 1.51 billion, 2025: HKD 1.68 billion, 2026: HKD 1.84 billion, 2027: HKD 2.01 billion [5][8]. - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 16.6% in 2024, expected to reach 17.0% by 2027 [10]. - Net Margin: 10.8% in 2024, projected to increase to 11.6% by 2027 [10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 11.0 in 2024, decreasing to 8.3 by 2027 [10]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 3.2 in 2024, expected to decline to 1.7 by 2027 [10].

Financial Performance - Overall revenue rose by 7.5% to RMB 14,023.8 million, compared to RMB 13,051.3 million last year[4] - Gross profit increased by 12.4% to RMB 2,325.5 million, with an improved gross profit margin of 16.6%[4] - Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders rose by 12.5% to RMB 1,510.9 million, with basic and diluted earnings per share of RMB 0.4600[4] - The average return on equity for the year was 32.7%, down from 36.8% the previous year[4] - Operating profit increased by 11.6% to RMB 2,012.4 million, compared to RMB 1,803.4 million in 2023, despite a rise in selling and administrative expenses by 11.5%[33] - Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders rose by 12.5% to RMB 1,510.9 million, up from RMB 1,342.5 million in 2023[35] - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 14,023,767 thousand, representing a 7.4% increase from RMB 13,051,250 thousand in 2023[69] - The company's total equity rose to RMB 5,174,008 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 4,177,017 thousand in 2023, representing a 23.9% increase[72] Contract and Project Management - The total managed construction area increased by 7.4% to 431.1 million square meters, with new orders of 74.1 million square meters and a reduction of 44.5 million square meters for optimization[3] - The new contract value for the year was approximately RMB 4,441.2 million, with RMB 2,848.7 million from independent third parties[4] - The breakdown of new managed area by project source shows 36.7% from China State Construction and China Overseas Group and 63.3% from independent third parties, totaling 74.1 million square meters[28] - The new managed area for residential projects accounted for 49.7% and for non-residential projects accounted for 50.3%, with respective contract values of RMB 2,342.7 million and RMB 2,098.5 million[28] Strategic Focus and Development - The company aims to focus on high-quality development and service modernization as part of its strategic planning for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period[6] - The company is committed to becoming a comprehensive service operator for urban spaces, focusing on community governance and collaboration with stakeholders[9] - The company has developed a service system that spans the entire life cycle of real estate development, enhancing its supply chain integration capabilities[15] - The company is focusing on modernizing property management services through technology innovation and cross-industry collaboration, aiming for a comprehensive upgrade of service systems and brand establishment[26] Sustainability and Innovation - The company aims to achieve a "dual carbon" goal and has published a white paper on carbon neutrality, emphasizing its commitment to sustainable development[17] - The group is committed to sustainable development, offering comprehensive engineering value-added services, including maintenance, smart fire safety, and new energy charging operations, while innovating proprietary products like smart charging sockets and energy-saving lights[21] - The group aims to reduce carbon emissions per unit area by 15% by 2030 as part of its carbon neutrality commitment[64] - The company has implemented innovative technologies, such as smart cleaning robots, to enhance service quality and efficiency in property management[14] Employee and Operational Efficiency - The group employed approximately 38,627 employees as of December 31, 2024, down from 43,012 employees a year earlier[68] - Total employee costs for the year were approximately RMB 4,511.7 million, a decrease from RMB 4,923.9 million in the previous year[68] - The group has implemented automation measures such as on-site quality monitoring systems and remote video monitoring systems to enhance operational efficiency[59] - The company is implementing a "partner system" management model to enhance team capabilities and operational efficiency, promoting a culture of innovation and professional development[24] Market Expansion and Client Resources - The company continues to enrich its property management offerings by expanding into various sectors, including logistics parks and healthcare facilities[13][15] - The company has actively expanded its client resources across various sectors, including commercial complexes, offices, and public facilities[38] - The company plans to continue expanding its property management services and explore new market opportunities in the coming year[73] - The company is expanding its market presence in high-value regions, focusing on smart city construction, digitalization, and green initiatives to strengthen its core competitiveness[20] Recognition and Awards - The company has been recognized as the leading property management service provider in Hong Kong, holding the largest market share in the region[14] - The company has been awarded multiple accolades, including being named the "No.1 Property Service Brand Influence Enterprise in China" for seven consecutive years[16] - The group has received recognition as a "China Quality Life Operation Brand Enterprise" in 2024, reflecting its commitment to high-quality community service[22] - The company has been recognized for its strong performance in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, receiving several awards in 2024[17] Financial Position and Assets - Cash and bank balances increased by 13.1% to RMB 5,803.5 million in 2024, compared to RMB 5,130.7 million in 2023[55] - The net value of current assets increased to RMB 4,476.4 million in 2024 from RMB 3,565.6 million in 2023[55] - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 11,455,820 thousand, up from RMB 10,610,823 thousand in 2023, indicating a growth of 7.9%[71] - The total trade receivables as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 2,827,771,000, an increase from RMB 2,620,531,000 in 2023, representing a growth of about 7.9%[99] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The audit committee, consisting of independent non-executive directors, reviewed the annual performance and consolidated accounts for the year ended December 31, 2024[113] - The company adhered to the corporate governance code as per the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's listing rules throughout the year ended December 31, 2024[115] - The company confirmed compliance with the standard code for securities trading by all directors for the year ended December 31, 2024[116] - The group adopted revised Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards this year, which did not have a significant impact on its financial position and performance[79]