Core Viewpoint - The performance of China Overseas Macro Yang in 1H25 met market expectations, with significant declines in revenue and net profit, but positive sales performance in key cities and a proactive land acquisition strategy [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 33% year-on-year to 14.5 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 0.4 percentage points to 9.3% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 67.9% year-on-year to 284 million yuan, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.01 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 11.5% and a dividend yield of 0.43% [1]. Sales and Project Development - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 16.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of 13% year-on-year, maintaining a top 20 ranking in equity sales [1]. - New project launches performed well, contributing 4.2 billion yuan in sales with an average absorption rate of 47% [1]. - The company continued to focus on core cities, ranking first in sales in 8 cities and among the top three in 19 cities [1]. Land Acquisition Strategy - The company adopted a more aggressive approach to land acquisition, spending 6.2 billion yuan on 11 plots of land, adding 16.6 billion yuan in new value [1]. - The cash position is relatively strong, with cash accounting for 22% of total assets, allowing the company to seize structural opportunities in the land market [1]. Financial Stability and Cost Management - The net debt ratio decreased by 11.1 percentage points year-on-year to 33.5% [2]. - The average financing cost fell by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 3.5% through refinancing strategies [2]. Future Outlook - The company is focused on the progress of inventory project liquidation and the pace of profit margin recovery [2]. - As of the end of 1H25, the unsold value of inventory was approximately 114.3 billion yuan, with 70% from projects acquired in 2021 or earlier [2]. - The company expects a gross margin of around 19% for new projects launched after 2022, with 40% of the revenue in 1H25 coming from these projects [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 28% and 17% to 384 million yuan (a 60% year-on-year decline) and 503 million yuan (a 31% year-on-year increase) respectively [2]. - The target price is maintained at 2.75 HKD, corresponding to 0.3 times the 2025 target P/B ratio, indicating a 20% upside potential [2].
中国海外宏洋集团(00081.HK)：关注土储换仓进展与利润率探底节奏