HAIDILAO(HK:06862) Ge Long Hui·2025-08-26 19:50Core Viewpoint - Haidilao's 1H25 performance slightly underperformed expectations, primarily due to higher-than-expected effective tax rates [1] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 3.7% year-on-year to 20.7 billion yuan [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 13.7% year-on-year to 1.76 billion yuan [1] - Core operating profit declined by 14.0%, with a core operating profit margin down by 1.4 percentage points to 11.6% [1] - The number of restaurants as of June 2025 was 1,363, with a net closure of 5 restaurants in 1H25 [1] - Same-store revenue decreased by 10%, with a same-store turnover rate of 3.8 times per day compared to 4.2 times in 1H24 [1] - Average customer spending increased by 0.5% year-on-year to 97.9 yuan [1] - A mid-term dividend of 1.67 billion yuan was declared, with a payout ratio of 95% [1] Cost Structure - Raw material cost ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points due to enhanced customer experience [1] - Labor cost ratio rose by 0.5 percentage points due to increased employee benefits and optimized scheduling [1] - Expense ratio improved by 0.7 percentage points, excluding depreciation of right-of-use assets [1] - Effective tax rate increased by 3.6 percentage points to 33% [1] Development Trends - The company is deepening the "Different Haidilao" initiative, expecting improved turnover rates in 2H25 [1] - Plans to enhance customer connection through dedicated managers and improve employee welfare to boost service quality [1] - Introduction of "fresh-cut" and "seasonal" product lines to better meet market demand [1] - As of June, nearly 30 night snack-themed stores and over 50 fresh-cut product-themed stores have been transformed, with plans for further expansion [1] Brand and Franchise Potential - The company has established 14 restaurant brands with a total of 126 stores as of June [2] - "Yanqing Barbecue" opened 46 new stores in 1H25, reaching a total of 70, with expectations to reach around 100 by year-end [2] - The franchise model combines "old stores + new stores" to help franchisees quickly adopt brand concepts [2] - The takeaway business saw a significant revenue increase of 59.6%, with "Xiaofan Cuisine" contributing over 55% of takeaway revenue [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 9% to 3.78 billion yuan and 4.38 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20 times for 2025 and 17 times for 2026 [2] - The target price is maintained at 16 HKD, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 22 times for 2025 and 19 times for 2026, indicating an upside potential of 8% [2]