GB200/GB300四季度有望大幅放量 瑞银维持英伟达(NVDA.US)“买入”评级

Core Viewpoint - UBS raised the target price for NVIDIA (NVDA.US) from $175 to $205 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, citing strong momentum in demand [1] Group 1: Demand and Revenue Projections - Overall demand signals remain strong, with Texas Oncor receiving approximately 40 gigawatts of high-confidence data center load requests, despite potential duplicate orders [1] - NVIDIA is expected to report strong performance guidance, with partners indicating a potential deployment of 30,000 racks this year, leading to significant volume increases in Q4 [1] - The company anticipates generating billions in quarterly revenue following an agreement with the U.S. government, allowing the sale of H20 chips with a 15% revenue return [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - For Q2 (July), revenue is projected at approximately $46 billion, exceeding expectations by about $1 billion [2] - Q3 revenue guidance, excluding the Chinese market, is estimated at $54-55 billion, potentially reaching $57 billion when including China [2] - The business segment is expected to see a quarter-over-quarter growth of 20-25%, contributing $7-8 billion to revenue growth [2] Group 3: Data Center and Gaming Business Insights - Total revenue for the data center in Q3 is projected to reach $49 billion, while the gaming segment may face growth pressure due to a high base in Q1 [2] - There may be some impairment provisions for reusable H20 inventory in the Chinese market, but NVIDIA is believed to have placed new wafer orders for Hopper chips and is developing the Blackwell version [2] - The U.S. government is likely to increase sales license limits to China as part of the agreement [2]