“拒不分红” 的拼多多要当 “巴菲特”？

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo has accumulated significant cash assets and must address how to utilize these funds effectively as it transitions from a growth phase to a mature phase [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the latest quarter, Pinduoduo's interest and investment income reached a substantial level of 10 billion RMB, which is notable compared to the 25.8 billion RMB operating profit from core business [1]. - The average quarterly income from interest and investments remains around 5.3 billion RMB, consistent with the previous year's performance [2]. Group 2: Cash and Investment Assets - As of the second quarter, Pinduoduo has a total of 538.8 billion RMB (approximately 75 billion USD) in cash or idle funds that can generate interest or be invested [5]. - The key components of idle funds include short-term investments and other non-current assets, which are categorized based on their maturity [6][7]. Group 3: Short-term Investments - Short-term investments, which account for 60% of the total, primarily consist of fixed deposits and held-to-maturity bonds, with a small portion in available-for-sale bonds and other debt instruments [9]. - Pinduoduo has increased its stock trading activities, with stock investments rising from 17.2 billion RMB in 2023 to 44.5 billion RMB in 2024 [10]. Group 4: Investment Returns - The return on short-term investments, particularly from stock trading, has been favorable, with projected earnings of 8.7 billion RMB and a return rate of 24% for 2024 [19]. - Pinduoduo's return on equity (ROE) stands at 13.5% for the first half of the year, significantly higher than the 4%-5% return on idle cash [21]. Group 5: Capital Allocation Strategy - The company faces a clear priority in capital allocation: reinforcing its core business to maintain competitive pricing and exploring new market opportunities while sustaining current ROE levels [22][23]. - The overall yield on cash and investment assets has remained around 4%-5%, indicating a strategy to enhance returns through stock trading due to excess cash [24]. Group 6: Future Considerations - The company has two main options for optimizing capital allocation: increasing investments in core business areas or considering dividends and share buybacks as growth slows [26]. - If neither option is pursued, the company risks accumulating cash without effective use, leading to declining ROE and potential valuation issues [27].