英伟达财报表现“中规中矩”，营收指引不及市场狂想

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia reported a record revenue of $46.7 billion for Q2, with a net profit of $26.422 billion, marking a 59% year-over-year increase. However, the company provided a conservative revenue forecast for Q3 at $54 billion, indicating a slowdown in growth after a two-year AI investment boom [2][3]. Financial Performance - Nvidia's Q2 revenue grew by 56% year-over-year to $46.7 billion, surpassing market expectations of $46.2 billion. This growth represents the smallest year-over-year increase in two years, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.05, exceeding the forecast of $1.01 [3]. - The data center business generated $41.1 billion in revenue, accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue, but fell short of the expected $41.3 billion. Gaming revenue was $4.29 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $3.8 billion [3]. Stock Buyback and Market Response - Nvidia approved a $60 billion stock buyback plan, with $14.7 billion remaining from previous buyback authorizations [4]. - Following the earnings report, Nvidia's stock initially dropped over 5% in after-hours trading but later narrowed the decline. The stock has risen 35% year-to-date, with a market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion [2]. Challenges in the Chinese Market - Nvidia faces uncertainty in the Chinese market, as recent U.S. government policies have restricted sales of AI chips to China. Although some restrictions were eased, the company did not sell any H20 AI chips to Chinese customers in Q2 [5][6]. - Analysts are divided on the potential revenue recovery in China, with estimates ranging from tens of billions to no predictions until the situation clarifies [6]. Future Outlook and Market Position - Nvidia expects Q3 revenue to be $54 billion, with significant discrepancies in analyst forecasts, indicating a rare divergence in expectations [7]. - The company is on track for annual revenue of $200 billion and aims to exceed $300 billion by 2028, capturing about one-third of the semiconductor market [7]. - Nvidia's reliance on a few major clients, such as Microsoft and Amazon, for approximately half of its revenue poses a risk, prompting efforts to diversify its business [7][8]. - Despite challenges, Nvidia remains a leader in the AI chip market, with no significant competitors currently threatening its market share [7][8].