纳入关键矿产范围，美国接下来要“抢银”了？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has proposed adding silver and five other minerals to the 2025 critical minerals list, which could lead to the imposition of import tariffs on silver, potentially up to 50% [1][4]. Group 1: Proposal and Implications - The USGS's draft proposal includes copper, silicon, silver, and potassium, stating these resources are vital for the U.S. economy and national security [1]. - The proposal is open for public comment for 30 days following its publication in the Federal Register [1]. - Citigroup notes that this expands the scope of the Section 232 investigation to 56 metals and minerals, indicating a significant regulatory shift [1][5]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Forecast - Citigroup's analysts believe that if the U.S. imposes tariffs of up to 50%, the price spread for silver will significantly widen, with a bullish price target of $43 per ounce in the next 6-12 months [3][5]. - The current exchange for physical silver and palladium futures is undervalued at a premium of only 2-3%, not reflecting the potential tariff risks adequately [1][5]. Group 3: Strategic Position of Silver - Silver's strategic importance is increasing due to dual demand from industrial and investment sectors, reinforcing its price support as the U.S. seeks to reduce import dependency [4]. - The U.S. currently relies on imports for 64% of its silver, and the potential tariffs could create significant arbitrage opportunities in COMEX silver futures [5]. Group 4: Broader Implications for Other Metals - Palladium is also facing dual tariff risks due to an anti-dumping investigation and the critical minerals Section 232 inquiry, which could impact its pricing [6]. - Other industrial metals like nickel, zinc, tin, and lead are also at risk of rising premiums due to tariff concerns, as U.S. importers may rush to procure supplies to avoid tariffs [6].