“重估”富途

Core Viewpoint - Futu is at a valuation restructuring inflection point, with strong growth in customer acquisition, asset management scale, revenue, and profit not yet reflected in its valuation [1] Group 1: Growth and Valuation Discrepancy - There is a significant "decoupling" between Futu's growth prospects and its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is a core driver for valuation re-evaluation [2] - Historically, from 2019 to 2021, Futu's customer asset management scale had a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 100%, with an average expected P/E ratio of 35 times, peaking at 93 times [2] - Following regulatory tightening in Q4 2021, Futu's growth prospects sharply declined, with a CAGR of only 9% from 2022 to 2023, leading to an average expected P/E ratio of 14 times [3] Group 2: Recent Performance and Future Projections - Since 2024, Futu has seen significant growth in customer acquisition and asset management scale, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 60%, yet its average expected P/E ratio remains at 14 times [3] - Morgan Stanley projects a 43% year-on-year growth in customer asset management scale for 2025, indicating that the current P/E ratios of 23 times and 20 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively, are due for re-evaluation [3] Group 3: Drivers of Growth - Futu's growth recovery is supported by several clear drivers, including successful overseas expansion, with paid customer penetration rates reaching approximately 30% in Hong Kong and 20% in Singapore by Q2 2025 [4] - The company is also enhancing its asset share per customer, with net asset inflows nearly doubling year-on-year, significantly outpacing the 40% growth rate in paid customers [4] - Futu is actively entering the digital asset space, with a comprehensive "R-A-C-E" strategy aimed at tokenizing real-world assets, building advanced technology, and applying for a virtual asset trading platform license [4] Group 4: Valuation Comparison with Peers - Compared to global peers, Futu's valuation discount is particularly pronounced, with a projected P/E ratio of 20 times for 2026, significantly lower than Robinhood's 52 times, Interactive Brokers' 29 times, and East Money's 32 times [6] - Despite this, Futu demonstrates stronger competitive metrics, with the highest expected return on equity (ROE) and earnings per share (EPS) CAGR of 28% among its peers from 2024 to 2026 [6] - The valuation disparity is primarily attributed to market concerns over regulatory risks in Futu's mainland business, but this risk is diminishing as the contribution of mainland business to paid customers and asset management scale has decreased from approximately 40% and 50% in 2021 to about 20% and 30% in H1 2025, respectively [6]