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中广核矿业(1164.HK):业绩阶段性承压 2026年起有望加速释放

Group 1 - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net investment income for H1 2025, with revenue at 1.709 billion HKD, down 58.4% year-on-year, and a net loss of 68 million HKD, marking a shift from profit to loss [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to the international trade of natural uranium experiencing price volatility, leading to a decrease in gross profit due to inventory accounting methods and a drop in investment income from associated companies [1] - The company achieved a uranium production of 1,354.7 tons U, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, with a production completion rate of 110.5%, while mining costs decreased year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The world's largest uranium mining company, Kazatomprom, has revised its 2026 production guidance down by approximately 9.4% to 29,697 tons U, emphasizing a strategy focused on long-term market value rather than volume growth [2] - Kazatomprom's decision to lower production is expected to positively impact uranium prices, as the company holds a significant market share, accounting for 43% of global natural uranium production in 2022 [2] Group 3 - A new sales framework agreement has been approved, which will increase the baseline price for uranium sales from 61.78 to 94.22 USD per pound U3O8 starting in 2026, enhancing the company's earnings elasticity [3] - The new agreement anticipates a significant increase in contracted uranium sales volumes for the years 2026-2028 compared to 2024, with additional buffer provisions for potential resource increases [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the new pricing mechanism and the anticipated rise in uranium prices, leading to accelerated earnings growth starting in 2026 [3]