中广核矿业(1164.HK)：天然铀供需共振 业绩弹性可期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to fluctuations in natural uranium international trade contract prices and inventory accounting methods [1][3] Group 1: Company Performance - The company recorded a revenue of 1.709 billion HKD for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 58% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -68 million HKD, representing a year-on-year decline of 160% [1] - The company's uranium production was stable, with 428 tons from Company X and 923 tons from Company Y, showing a year-on-year change of -10% and +8% respectively, leading to a total production increase of 1.2% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The largest natural uranium producer, Kazatomprom, announced a 9.3% reduction in its nominal production for 2026, which is expected to maintain a balance in supply and demand [2] - The Jackson Hole meeting indicated a potential interest rate cut in September, which could improve the financing environment for physical uranium funds [2] - The upcoming WNA conference may further strengthen global consensus on nuclear power development, potentially boosting the spot market and encouraging nuclear operators to replenish their stocks [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The World Bank lifted its ban on nuclear power financing in June 2025, supporting new nuclear projects and the deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) [2] - As of the first half of 2025, the global operational nuclear power capacity was 376 GW, with ongoing construction of 65 GW [2] - The long-term contract uranium price increased by 2 USD to 82 USD/lbs in July, reflecting positive expectations from market participants regarding the fundamentals of natural uranium [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 348 million, 1.039 billion, and 1.123 billion HKD, with corresponding EPS of 0.05, 0.14, and 0.15 HKD [3] - The valuation has been adjusted to 21.5x PE, with a target price raised to 3.01 HKD, reflecting market expectations for uranium prices [3] - The rating has been downgraded to "Accumulate" due to recent stock price increases and the market's partial reflection of positive factors [3]