口子窖业绩滑坡，转型之路挑战重重

Core Viewpoint - The journey of Kuozi Jiao reflects the fluctuations and challenges within the liquor industry, highlighting its recent struggles after a period of rapid growth [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Kuozi Jiao achieved significant revenue growth after its IPO in 2015, with revenues reaching 2.584 billion yuan and net profits of 605.4 million yuan in its first year [1]. - By 2018, Kuozi Jiao's revenue soared to 4.269 billion yuan, with net profits hitting 1.533 billion yuan, solidifying its position as the second-largest player in the Huijiu industry [1]. - However, in the first half of this year, Kuozi Jiao's revenue fell to 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20.07%, while net profit dropped to 715 million yuan, down 24.63% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in Kuozi Jiao's performance is attributed to significant changes in consumer behavior, particularly the reduction in government and business banquets, which weakened the core driving force of its "pan-in-pan" model [4]. - The shift towards wedding and family consumption has led to a substantial decrease in average transaction value [4]. - Kuozi Jiao's "big merchant system" has also shown weaknesses, as the reliance on large distributors has resulted in a loss of control over terminal sales, impacting the sales of new products [4]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Kuozi Jiao attempted to reform its distribution channels by cutting ties with large distributors to shift towards a manufacturer-led marketing model, but the results have been underwhelming [4]. - In the first half of this year, wholesale agency revenue fell by 21.26%, a decline greater than the overall revenue drop, indicating challenges in adapting to the new market environment [4]. - Despite some growth in direct sales (including group purchases), it has not been sufficient to offset the losses from wholesale agency sales [4].