Cambricon(SH:688256) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-08-28 14:42Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Cambricon's stock price has raised concerns about potential disconnection from its current fundamentals, prompting the company to issue a risk warning to investors [1][10]. Financial Performance - Cambricon expects to achieve an annual revenue of between 5 billion to 7 billion yuan for the year 2025 [2]. - The company reported a significant revenue growth of over 43 times year-on-year and turned a profit in its latest half-year report [3]. Stock Price Movement - On August 28, Cambricon's stock price rose by 15.73%, closing at 1587.91 yuan per share, making it the highest stock in A-shares, surpassing Kweichow Moutai [4]. - Since July 11, 2025, Cambricon's stock has increased by over 170%, and its price has skyrocketed 22 times over the past three years, reaching a total increase of 2288.75% [4]. Market Position and Investor Sentiment - Cambricon is benefiting from the "domestic substitution" trend, focusing on the large model computing power sector and cloud intelligent chips [5]. - The company has been included in several major indices, such as CSI 300 and SSE 50, which has contributed to its rising stock price [6]. - Notable investors, including "super bull" Zhang Jianping, have heavily invested in Cambricon, with his holdings valued at over 8.8 billion yuan [6]. Financing and Investment Trends - There has been a significant influx of financing, with the financing balance for Cambricon reaching a historical high of 8.852 billion yuan as of August 26 [8]. Operational Risks - Cambricon faces high inventory pressure, with inventory balances reaching 2.69 billion yuan, a 51.64% increase from the previous year [9]. - The company has a high customer concentration risk, with the top five customers accounting for 85.31% of accounts receivable and contract assets [9]. - Supply chain uncertainties are present due to reliance on foundries like TSMC and being listed on the U.S. "entity list," which may affect access to EDA design tools and advanced process resources [9]. Valuation Concerns - Cambricon's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio has reached 595 times, significantly higher than the median of 137 times for semiconductor products, indicating potential overvaluation [10]. - Institutional attitudes are mixed, with 269 funds increasing their holdings while 119 funds chose to reduce their positions, leading to a significant decrease in total fund shares held [10].