中金：维持中国重汽跑赢行业评级 升目标价至27.21港元

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains the profit forecast for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951) for 2025/2026, with an upward adjustment of the target price by 11.9% to HKD 27.21, indicating a potential upside of 23.7% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's revenue increased by 4.2% year-on-year to CNY 50.88 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 4.0% to CNY 3.43 billion, aligning with expectations [1] - The gross profit margin for 1H25 improved by 0.4 percentage points to 15.1%, while the expense ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7%, indicating effective cost control [3] - The heavy truck business revenue grew by 4% to CNY 44.2 billion, maintaining an operating profit margin of 6.0% [3] Group 2: Market Position and Sales - In 1H25, the heavy truck industry wholesale sales increased by 7% year-on-year to 539,000 units, with the company’s heavy truck sales rising by 9.2% to 137,000 units, maintaining the top market share [2] - The company’s heavy truck single-unit revenue decreased by CNY 15,400 to CNY 320,900, while single-unit profit fell by CNY 1,245 to CNY 25,100, remaining at historically high levels [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company expects a 10% year-on-year increase in heavy truck industry sales in 2025, supported by various factors including trade-in policies, strong export demand, and growth in new energy segments [4] - The new energy heavy truck registration volume surged by 186% year-on-year to 79,000 units in 1H25, with the company achieving a 226% increase to 9,157 units, capturing an 11.6% market share [4] - The company is advancing in electric and intelligent vehicle sectors, with significant developments in low-speed logistics and high-speed trunk logistics, and has begun mass deliveries of related products [4]