Core Viewpoint - CICC has upgraded the stock rating of Greentown Management Holdings (09979) to outperform the industry, maintaining a target price of HKD 3.2, reflecting improved front-end operational trends and high dividend yield support [1] Group 1: Front-end Operational Indicators - Positive changes in front-end operational indicators have been observed, with new expansion amount increasing by 19% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, corresponding to a construction fee of 251 CNY per square meter, up 5% year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow net amount increased by 45% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating recovery [2][3] - From January to July, overall construction sales showed resilience, with growth outpacing the top 10 real estate companies by 14 percentage points [2] Group 2: Sales and Cash Flow Performance - From January to July, the company's construction sales amount reached 51.1 billion CNY, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, with improvements in project opening rates and site conversion rates [3] - Operating cash inflow for the first half of the year was 110 million CNY, with the coverage ratio of operating cash flow to net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 28 percentage points to 44% [3] Group 3: Project Expansion and Fee Stability - The company, as an industry leader, has a significant competitive advantage, with new signed construction contracts amounting to 5 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 19% year-on-year increase, maintaining a stable construction fee of 251 CNY per square meter [4] - By the end of 2024, the company has 15.2 billion CNY in hand, ensuring overall order coverage remains secure [4] Group 4: Dividend Yield Support - The company has historically emphasized shareholder returns, with a payout ratio exceeding 100% in 2022-2023 [5] - The company aims to optimize its dividend policy to provide long-term, stable, and sustainable returns to shareholders, with an estimated annual dividend yield of 9.5% if the per-share dividend remains consistent with 2024 [5] Group 5: Potential Catalysts - Potential catalysts include gradual stabilization of operations and performance, along with active fulfillment of dividend payouts [6]
中金：上调绿城管理控股至跑赢行业评级 目标价3.2港元