美银证券：降中国重汽目标价至24.3港元 重申“中性”评级

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has revised its revenue forecasts for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951) for 2025 to 2027, lowering estimates by 5%, 6%, and 6% respectively, while increasing gross margin forecasts by 0.2 percentage points for the same period [1] Group 1: Revenue and Earnings Forecasts - The earnings estimates for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted, with increases of 0.2% for 2025, and decreases of 5.5% and 4.8% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - The target price has been reduced from HKD 25.4 to HKD 24.3, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Market Position - In the first half of the year, China National Heavy Duty Truck reported revenue of RMB 51 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, which was below the bank's estimate of 8% [1] - The company anticipates that the wholesale volume of heavy trucks in China will reach 1 million units in 2025, representing an 11% increase, with expectations of exceeding 1 million units in the following two years [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The trade-in subsidy for old trucks is expected to boost replacement demand in the second half of the year [1] - Management projects that from 2026 onwards, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (HDT and LDT) will exceed 30% due to the expansion of the end market in China [1]