茶百道：半年门店仅增59家，业绩修复可持续吗？

Core Viewpoint - Tea Baidao (02555.HK) reported a revenue growth of 4% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, achieving total revenue of 2.5 billion yuan and a profit increase of 40% to 333 million yuan, driven by supply chain cost reductions and a decrease in franchisee subsidies [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached 2.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4% [1] - Gross profit amounted to 815 million yuan, with a gross margin of 32.6% [1] - Net profit increased to 333 million yuan, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth [1] Factors Driving Profit Growth - Supply chain cost reduction: The number of national distribution centers increased to 26, with approximately 93.8% of stores achieving next-day delivery after ordering, and 95% receiving deliveries twice or more weekly, leading to an 0.9 percentage point increase in gross margin [1] - Decrease in franchisee subsidies: The company reduced material discounts and advertising subsidies from approximately 200 million yuan last year, resulting in a 2% increase in net profit margin [1] - Stagnation in expansion: The total number of stores increased to 8,444, with a net increase of only 59 stores in the first half of the year, leading to a 2-3 percentage point decrease in sales and distribution expense ratio [1] Market Position and Competition - The company is in the early stages of exploring overseas markets, with operations in 8 countries and over 40 signed stores, but revenue contribution remains below 1% [2] - Competitors are experiencing varied expansion rates, with some brands like Mi Xue Bing Cheng rapidly increasing their store count, while others like Naixue's Tea have slowed down significantly [2] - The company has approximately 3.7 billion yuan in cash and no interest-bearing debt, indicating potential for future expansion [2] Challenges Ahead - The company faced a closure of 890 stores in 2024, with higher closure rates in lower-tier cities, which could widen the gap in procurement, logistics, and marketing costs compared to competitors [3] - The long-term scale disadvantage due to stagnation in store expansion could impact the company's competitive position in the market [2][3]