中国茶饮市场增长潜力巨大，头部品牌加速扩张步伐 根据弗若斯特沙利文的数据，2023 年中国现制茶饮市场规模达 2,473 亿元，2018- 2023 年复合增长率为 25.2%；约 3,000 个品牌参与竞争，市场集中度（CR5）为 40.2%。随着现制茶饮市场连锁化率的提升，尾部品牌生存空间受到挤压，价格、 产品和营销等方面的竞争愈加激烈。赛道竞争白热化，各品牌纷纷推出加盟优惠政 策以加快扩张步伐，抢占下沉市场空间。凭借卓越的产品力、强大的品牌建设、出 色的加盟模式运营能力，以及线上线下渠道的全面打通，2023 年茶百道按零售额计 算的市场份额达到 6.8%，位居中国现制茶饮市场第三。 品牌塑造与产品创新巩固市场领先地位，海外扩张打造成长第二曲线 公司在品牌塑造和产品创新方面不断深耕，经典产品备受欢迎，季节性限量及联名 新品进一步提升了品牌的新鲜感和市场吸引力；构建线上线下全链条营销网络，通 过主流社交平台扩大在线影响力，并通过跨界联名为品牌注入独特文化价值。同 时，公司推出"咖灰"子品牌进军咖啡市场并积极推动出海战略，重点关注东南亚 市场。截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日，公司已在韩国、泰国及澳大利亚 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [1][3] Core Views - The company faces pressure on single-store revenue due to intense competition in the ready-to-drink tea market [2] - The company continues to expand in lower-tier cities and overseas markets, but single-store revenue is under pressure [3] - The company is expected to optimize its products and supply chain to improve performance [2] Financial Performance - 2024H1 revenue: RMB 2.396 billion, down 10.0% YoY [3] - Adjusted net profit for 2024H1: RMB 395 million, down 34% YoY [3] - Adjusted net profit margin: 16.5%, down 6 percentage points YoY [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 237 million, down 59.7% YoY [3] - Gross profit: RMB 760 million, down 18.6% YoY, with a gross margin of 31.7%, down 3.4 percentage points YoY [3] - Sales expense ratio: 4.4%, up 2.7 percentage points YoY [3] - Management expense ratio: 9.1%, up 2.1 percentage points YoY [3] - R&D expense ratio: 0.6%, up 0.4 percentage points YoY [3] Store Expansion and Performance - Total stores as of 2024H1: 8,385, up 20.6% YoY [3] - New stores opened in 2024H1: 826, with 245 closures [3] - Annualized closure rate: 6.2% in 2024H1, up from 3% in 2023H1 [3] - Stores in fourth-tier and below cities account for 24% of total stores [3] - Overseas expansion: 4 stores in South Korea, 2 in Thailand, and 1 in Australia as of 2024H1 [3] - Single-store revenue declined by 26% YoY, mainly due to a decrease in average cup volume per store [3] - Cup prices are expected to decline slightly [3] Future Projections - Adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 965 million (-23% YoY), RMB 1.044 billion (+8% YoY), and RMB 1.101 billion (+6% YoY) respectively [3] - PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 9x, 8x, and 8x respectively [3] Market Data - Current stock price: HKD 6.30 [2] - 52-week price range: HKD 6.10 to HKD 13.00 [6] - Current market capitalization: HKD 9.309 billion [6]

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target market capitalization of HKD 28.9 billion based on a 17x PE ratio for 2024 [12][160] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 7.174 billion, RMB 8.826 billion, and RMB 10.382 billion for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 26%, 23%, and 18% respectively [12][34] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be RMB 1.573 billion, RMB 1.928 billion, and RMB 2.259 billion for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 17% respectively [12][36] - The company's main revenue comes from goods and equipment sales to franchisees, accounting for over 99% of total revenue [10][46] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from RMB 3.644 billion in 2021 to RMB 5.704 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 25.2% [14][55] - Gross margin remained stable at around 34% from 2021 to 2023 [14][55] - Net profit margin was 20.2% in 2023, with operating expenses ratio at 2.3% for sales, 7.4% for administration, and 0.3% for R&D [55] - Inventory turnover days decreased from 20.1 days in 2022 to 19.2 days in 2023 [52] Market Position - The company ranked third in market share and store count in 2023, with a 7% market share [31][65] - As of 2023, the company had 7,801 stores, with 99% being franchise stores [76] - The company covers 31 provinces in China and has entered overseas markets including South Korea, Thailand, and Australia [21][134] Industry Analysis - The Chinese tea beverage market grew from RMB 805 billion in 2018 to RMB 2.473 trillion in 2023, with a CAGR of 25.2% [59] - The market is expected to reach RMB 5.385 trillion by 2028, with lower-tier cities showing significant growth potential [59][83] - The penetration rate of tea delivery increased from 47.6% in 2021 to 58.0% in 2023 [170] Growth Strategy - The company plans to expand its store network in lower-tier cities, with a potential store count of 11,923 based on current market density [120] - It is developing a sub-brand "Kahui" for coffee and baked goods, with the first store opened in Chengdu in January 2024 [121][156] - The company is building overseas supply chains and operational systems, focusing on Southeast Asian markets [104] Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a stable average price of RMB 16 per cup, with classic products priced at RMB 13.9 and seasonal products at RMB 16.6 [25][87] - It has a strong R&D capability, launching 48 new products and upgrading 13 existing products in 2023 [73] - The company has established a comprehensive logistics network with 21 multi-temperature warehouses covering 80,000 square meters [91]