经营阶段性承压，探索海外市场布局 茶百道(2555) ——茶百道 2024 年报业绩点评 | ——茶百道 2024 | 年报业绩点评 | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 刘越男(分析师) | | 宋小寒(分析师) | | | | | | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 9.02 | | 021-38676666 | | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号S0880516030003 | | S0880524080011 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | | 本报告导读： 公司通过强化产品研发能力、供应链能力、运营管理能力、品牌影响力及数字化能 力等，有望提高竞争力。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万人民币） | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. 四川百茶百道實業股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：2555） 截至2024年12月31日止年度之年度業績公告 四川百茶百道實業股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此宣佈本公司 及其附屬公司（「本集團」）截至2024年12月31日止年度（「報告期」）之經審計合併 業績，連同2023年同期的比較數字如下： 財務表現摘要 | | 截至12月31日止年度 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024年 | 2023年 | | | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | | 收入 | 4,917,997 | 5,704,307 | | 毛利 | 1,534,679 | 1,963,782 | | 稅前利潤 | 621,835 | 1,365,848 | | 年內利潤 | ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, targeting a price of HKD 13.58, representing a potential upside of 44.8% from the current price of HKD 9.38 [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading brand in the mid-range ready-to-drink tea market, achieving stable revenue through a franchise model, with approximately 95% of revenue derived from sales to franchisees [1][2]. - The company has maintained double-digit growth in revenue and net profit from 2021 to 2023, with plans to expand its store count significantly in lower-tier cities as first-tier cities become saturated [1][2]. - The Chinese ready-to-drink tea market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.2% from 2018 to 2023, indicating strong potential for further expansion [2]. Summary by Sections Business Model - The company primarily operates through a franchise model, with over 99% of revenue coming from franchise sales, which provides a stable income source and reduces operational risks [29][35]. - The franchise model allows for rapid national expansion, with over 8,400 stores established across 31 provinces as of June 30, 2024 [35][59]. Market Position - The company holds a 6.8% market share in the Chinese ready-to-drink tea market, ranking third by retail sales in 2023 [2][59]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with over 3,000 brands competing and a market concentration (CR5) of 40.2% [2]. Product and Brand Strategy - The company emphasizes product innovation and brand building, with a product matrix that includes classic and seasonal offerings, enhancing market appeal [3][9]. - The introduction of a coffee sub-brand "Kahui" and expansion into Southeast Asian markets are part of the company's growth strategy [3][54]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at RMB 48.33 billion, RMB 53.51 billion, and RMB 58.33 billion, respectively, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of -15.3%, 10.7%, and 9.0% [4]. - Adjusted net profits are expected to be RMB 10.42 billion, RMB 11.71 billion, and RMB 12.95 billion for the same years, with year-over-year changes of -16.4%, 12.3%, and 10.6% [4]. Supply Chain and Operations - The company has established a robust supply chain system, ensuring product quality and operational efficiency through a nationwide logistics network [48]. - Approximately 90% of stores receive deliveries the next day, with a digital supply chain management system in place to optimize inventory and logistics [48]. Membership and Customer Engagement - The membership program has grown rapidly, with over 130 million registered members as of October 31, 2024, enhancing customer loyalty and engagement [24][27]. - The program includes a points system and user benefits, fostering a strong community atmosphere among consumers [27][28].

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [1][3] Core Views - The company faces pressure on single-store revenue due to intense competition in the ready-to-drink tea market [2] - The company continues to expand in lower-tier cities and overseas markets, but single-store revenue is under pressure [3] - The company is expected to optimize its products and supply chain to improve performance [2] Financial Performance - 2024H1 revenue: RMB 2.396 billion, down 10.0% YoY [3] - Adjusted net profit for 2024H1: RMB 395 million, down 34% YoY [3] - Adjusted net profit margin: 16.5%, down 6 percentage points YoY [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 237 million, down 59.7% YoY [3] - Gross profit: RMB 760 million, down 18.6% YoY, with a gross margin of 31.7%, down 3.4 percentage points YoY [3] - Sales expense ratio: 4.4%, up 2.7 percentage points YoY [3] - Management expense ratio: 9.1%, up 2.1 percentage points YoY [3] - R&D expense ratio: 0.6%, up 0.4 percentage points YoY [3] Store Expansion and Performance - Total stores as of 2024H1: 8,385, up 20.6% YoY [3] - New stores opened in 2024H1: 826, with 245 closures [3] - Annualized closure rate: 6.2% in 2024H1, up from 3% in 2023H1 [3] - Stores in fourth-tier and below cities account for 24% of total stores [3] - Overseas expansion: 4 stores in South Korea, 2 in Thailand, and 1 in Australia as of 2024H1 [3] - Single-store revenue declined by 26% YoY, mainly due to a decrease in average cup volume per store [3] - Cup prices are expected to decline slightly [3] Future Projections - Adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 965 million (-23% YoY), RMB 1.044 billion (+8% YoY), and RMB 1.101 billion (+6% YoY) respectively [3] - PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 9x, 8x, and 8x respectively [3] Market Data - Current stock price: HKD 6.30 [2] - 52-week price range: HKD 6.10 to HKD 13.00 [6] - Current market capitalization: HKD 9.309 billion [6]

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target market capitalization of HKD 28.9 billion based on a 17x PE ratio for 2024 [12][160] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 7.174 billion, RMB 8.826 billion, and RMB 10.382 billion for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 26%, 23%, and 18% respectively [12][34] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be RMB 1.573 billion, RMB 1.928 billion, and RMB 2.259 billion for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 17% respectively [12][36] - The company's main revenue comes from goods and equipment sales to franchisees, accounting for over 99% of total revenue [10][46] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from RMB 3.644 billion in 2021 to RMB 5.704 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 25.2% [14][55] - Gross margin remained stable at around 34% from 2021 to 2023 [14][55] - Net profit margin was 20.2% in 2023, with operating expenses ratio at 2.3% for sales, 7.4% for administration, and 0.3% for R&D [55] - Inventory turnover days decreased from 20.1 days in 2022 to 19.2 days in 2023 [52] Market Position - The company ranked third in market share and store count in 2023, with a 7% market share [31][65] - As of 2023, the company had 7,801 stores, with 99% being franchise stores [76] - The company covers 31 provinces in China and has entered overseas markets including South Korea, Thailand, and Australia [21][134] Industry Analysis - The Chinese tea beverage market grew from RMB 805 billion in 2018 to RMB 2.473 trillion in 2023, with a CAGR of 25.2% [59] - The market is expected to reach RMB 5.385 trillion by 2028, with lower-tier cities showing significant growth potential [59][83] - The penetration rate of tea delivery increased from 47.6% in 2021 to 58.0% in 2023 [170] Growth Strategy - The company plans to expand its store network in lower-tier cities, with a potential store count of 11,923 based on current market density [120] - It is developing a sub-brand "Kahui" for coffee and baked goods, with the first store opened in Chengdu in January 2024 [121][156] - The company is building overseas supply chains and operational systems, focusing on Southeast Asian markets [104] Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a stable average price of RMB 16 per cup, with classic products priced at RMB 13.9 and seasonal products at RMB 16.6 [25][87] - It has a strong R&D capability, launching 48 new products and upgrading 13 existing products in 2023 [73] - The company has established a comprehensive logistics network with 21 multi-temperature warehouses covering 80,000 square meters [91]