Core Viewpoint - Green Town Management is facing operational and cash flow pressures in 2024, primarily due to declining real estate sales and slower cash flow recovery, but positive trends in the first half of 2025 may support future performance [1][2] Group 1: Operational Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a new expansion amount of 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with a per square meter construction fee of 251 yuan, up 5% year-on-year [1][2] - The company's construction sales for January to July amounted to 51.1 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year, while the top 10 real estate companies saw a 14% decline [1][2] - The operating cash flow net amount for the first half of 2024 was 1.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 45% year-on-year increase, with cash flow coverage of net profit rising by 28 percentage points to 44% [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - The company has historically prioritized shareholder returns, maintaining a payout ratio exceeding 100% in 2022-2023, with a projected payout ratio of 60% in 2024, corresponding to a dividend per share of 0.24 yuan [2] - The expected dividend yield for 2024 is 9.5%, indicating strong support for shareholder returns despite operational pressures [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 34% and 32% to 480 million yuan and 490 million yuan, respectively [3] - The rating has been upgraded to outperform the industry, with a target price of 3.2 HKD, reflecting a 12 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 and an 8% expected dividend yield [3] - The current trading valuation is at 10.6 times the 2025 price-to-earnings ratio and a 9.5% expected dividend yield [3]
绿城管理控股(09979.HK)：经营端展现积极信号 股息率提供估值支撑