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澳优(1717.HK):收入利润持续改善 海外羊奶粉表现亮眼

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 3.887 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, up 24.1% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from milk powder, domestic goat milk powder, and nutritional products in H1 2025 was 961 million, 1.381 billion, and 156 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -8.9%, and +7.0% [1] - The newly added cheese business generated a revenue of 479 million yuan in H1 2025 [1] - The decline in revenue from milk powder and domestic goat milk powder was primarily due to the launch of an internal code system upgrade in Q2, which led to a temporary reduction in shipment volumes [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The market share of the goat milk powder brand increased to 30.4% by the end of H1 2025, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Overseas revenue from goat milk powder saw a significant increase of 65.7% to 483 million yuan, accounting for 25.9% of the overall goat milk powder business revenue [1] - Key regions such as the Middle East, North America, and the CIS experienced revenue growth of 54.2%, 138.7%, and 33.8% respectively [1] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the lower gross margin of the newly merged goat cheese business at 6.8% [2] - The sales expense ratio was 26.1%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced promotional expenses from optimizing channel strategies [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased to 4.6%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite challenges such as declining birth rates and macroeconomic uncertainties, domestic goat milk powder revenue is expected to improve in H2 2025 as inventory adjustments are completed [3] - The overseas goat milk powder business remains a key growth driver, with the company achieving leading sales on Amazon in the U.S. for goat milk infant formula [3] - The nutritional products segment is being developed as a second growth avenue, focusing on large clients and enhancing online and offline sales channels [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 299 million, 357 million, and 410 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 13x, 11x, and 10x [3] - The company is recognized as a leading brand in goat milk powder with successful overseas market expansion and growth potential [3]