Seek .(US:SKLTY) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-31 12:22Group 1 - The core buying demographic for housing has shifted from the 70s and 80s generations, totaling over 400 million, to the younger 90s and 00s generations, which only comprise around 300 million [2] - The number of newborns has significantly declined, with 2023 witnessing fewer than 9 million births, half of the figure from 2016, indicating a shrinking future demand for housing [2] - The effectiveness of various housing market stimulus policies since 2021, such as lowering down payments and interest rates, has diminished, suggesting that these measures can only provide temporary support rather than create a robust market [4][5] Group 2 - The economic growth rate has slowed from around 10% to approximately 5%, leading to a shift in perception of real estate from an appreciating asset to a necessity for living [7][8] - By 2030, housing prices in different cities are expected to diverge significantly, with core urban areas like Beijing and Shanghai maintaining stability, while secondary cities may experience declines of 10-15% or more [10][13] - The risk of price depreciation is particularly high in lower-tier cities due to population outflow and insufficient industry, with potential declines of up to 30% by 2030 [13] Group 3 - The decision to buy or sell property is highly individual, with recommendations for first-time buyers to focus on manageable monthly payments and for investors to consider divesting from lower-tier properties [15] - The era of real estate as a wealth-building tool is perceived to be over, with future investment opportunities likely to arise in sectors such as technology, consumption, and health [15][17] - The analysis serves as a reminder that the era of widespread price increases in real estate has concluded, and future adjustments will be necessary, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making in the housing market [17]