Core Viewpoint - After four months of consolidation, China Water (00855) is expected to enter a new market phase due to strong market conditions and its own operational improvements [1][2]. Market Conditions - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since April, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 33% in less than five months, reaching a peak of 25,918 points on August 25, the highest in nearly four years [1]. - The market's strength is attributed to three main drivers: valuation recovery, policy benefits, and significant inflows of southbound capital, which have exceeded HKD 970 billion this year, surpassing the total for 2024 [1]. - Southbound capital has shown a preference for high-dividend assets, particularly in sectors like banking, energy, and utilities, which positions China Water favorably for accelerated investment [1]. Company Developments - Recent news indicates increased shareholder investment in China Water, including significant stakes acquired by Great Wall Life and Taikang Life, as well as ORIX Corporation increasing its shareholding to 20.28% [2]. - Despite the current market focus on technology sectors driven by AI, there is a noticeable shift towards high-dividend utility sectors, with China Water benefiting from this trend [2]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal year 2025, China Water's total revenue decreased by 9.4% to HKD 11.656 billion, primarily due to a decline in urban water supply service revenue. However, adjusted EBITDA increased by 1.8% to HKD 5.257 billion, indicating slight growth in real profitability [3]. - The company's gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 37.8%, with profit margins in urban water supply, direct drinking water, and environmental sectors increasing by 3.2, 2.7, and 3.4 percentage points, respectively [3]. - Capital expenditures decreased by HKD 1.9 billion to HKD 3.4 billion, leading to positive free cash flow for the first time, which supports a high dividend payout ratio that increased by 12 percentage points to 42% [4]. Future Outlook - For fiscal year 2026, China Water is expected to see steady growth, with 97.7 million tons per day of capacity under construction projected to come online, enhancing water sales [4]. - Accelerated water price adjustments are anticipated, with 8 to 10 projects expected to receive approval for price increases in fiscal year 2026, following recent successful adjustments [5]. - Analysts predict a rapid recovery in net profit for fiscal year 2026, with estimates from various brokerages indicating a potential increase of 27.64% to HKD 1.372 billion [5]. Investment Potential - Given the positive fundamental outlook and ongoing high dividend strategy, China Water is positioned to offer excess returns as southbound capital increasingly targets high-dividend assets [6]. - Analysts maintain a "buy" rating for China Water, projecting a target price of HKD 7.8, representing nearly a 30% upside from the closing price of HKD 6.21 on August 29 [6].
供水业务量价齐升趋势明朗，基本面向优的中国水务投资价值凸显