Core Viewpoint - The company, China Oriental Education (00667), has shown better-than-expected recovery in enrollment, leading to upward revisions in revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 2.4% and 6.4% respectively, reaching 4.5 billion yuan and 5 billion yuan [1]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts have been raised by 16.8% and 28.0%, now estimated at 756 million yuan and 974 million yuan [1]. Enrollment and Student Numbers - New enrollment numbers have gradually returned to normal, with a 7.1% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Average training sessions increased by 5.5% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in short-term and high-value programs [3]. - The number of schools increased by one compared to the end of the previous year [3]. Segment Performance - Revenue and new enrollment numbers by segment for the first half of 2025: - Culinary Arts: Revenue +11.4%, Enrollment +5.2% - Western Pastry: Revenue +14.3%, Enrollment +0.7% - Information Technology: Revenue -3.0%, Enrollment +6.4% - Automotive Services: Revenue +9.6%, Enrollment +9.3% - Fashion and Beauty: Revenue +90.2%, Enrollment +34.1% [3]. Profitability Improvement - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 57.3%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - All five segments reported year-on-year improvements in gross margin, with notable increases in Fashion and Beauty (+8.8 percentage points) and Culinary Arts (+5.1 percentage points) [4]. - The adjusted net profit margin reached 19.0%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to effective cost and expense management [4]. Product Structure and Strategic Development - The company is optimizing its long-term education product structure, with a focus on 15-month high-skill programs expected to see over 50% growth in new enrollments by 2026 [5]. - The management is accelerating the development of a higher education-oriented professional system and upgrading vocational schools to technician colleges over the next three to five years [5].
中金：维持中国东方教育跑赢行业评级 上调目标价至9.5港元