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天伦燃气(1600.HK)销气、增值业务齐升,高股息和业绩弹性凸显长期配置价值

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the steady performance and growth potential of Tianlun Gas, driven by its focus on core gas business and strategic initiatives, amidst a favorable market environment for Chinese assets [1][2][18]. Financial Performance - Tianlun Gas reported a revenue of 4.24 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [1]. - The adjusted core profit reached 129 million RMB [1]. - The gas sales business generated 3.64 billion RMB in revenue, up 12.8% year-on-year, accounting for 85.8% of total revenue, an increase from 84.3% in the previous year [4]. Business Growth - Total gas sales volume reached 1.27 billion cubic meters, a 15.3% increase year-on-year, with retail gas sales at 880 million cubic meters and wholesale gas sales at 390 million cubic meters, up 74.7% [4]. - The company added 94,150 residential users and 1,365 commercial users in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to approximately 3.92 million residential users and 53,200 commercial users, representing growth rates of 5.4% and 9.1% respectively [5]. Value-Added Services - Tianlun Gas has expanded its value-added services, achieving a revenue of 231 million RMB in the first half of 2025, a 27.6% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 114 million RMB, up 40.7% [6]. - The compound annual growth rate for value-added services from 2019 to 2024 exceeded 30% [6]. Dividend Policy - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.046 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 35% of core profits, supported by cash reserves of approximately 1.185 billion RMB [9][10]. - This stable dividend policy positions Tianlun Gas as a defensive asset, appealing to long-term investors [10]. Market Position and Strategy - Tianlun Gas is well-positioned in the market due to its focus on core business and strategic initiatives, which enhance its competitive edge [4][18]. - The company is actively optimizing its gas supply sources and infrastructure to ensure reliable service, particularly during peak demand seasons [5][13]. Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory changes in the natural gas sector are expected to enhance the profitability of Tianlun Gas, with a focus on price reforms and improved operational efficiency [11][13]. - The company anticipates a rebound in gross margins for gas sales, with management projecting a margin of 0.47 to 0.50 RMB per cubic meter for the second half of 2025 [13][14]. Investment Outlook - Tianlun Gas is viewed as a strong investment opportunity within the public utility sector, with a solid dividend yield and growth potential that surpasses traditional sectors like water and electricity [15][18]. - The company's valuation, despite recent stock price increases, still presents significant upside potential compared to industry averages [16].