十年增速低谷叠加“股王”地位松动，贵州茅台坐不住了？

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai has executed a significant share buyback and announced plans for further stock purchases by its controlling shareholder, signaling confidence in its long-term value and aiming to stabilize market expectations amid a challenging environment for the liquor industry [1][5][10]. Share Buyback - Guizhou Moutai completed a share buyback of 3.9276 million shares, accounting for 0.3127% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of 6 billion yuan, at prices ranging from 1,408.29 yuan to 1,639.99 yuan per share [1][4]. - This buyback is the first cancellation-style repurchase since the company's listing, aimed at reducing registered capital and enhancing shareholder value [4][5]. Controlling Shareholder's Purchase Plan - The controlling shareholder, Moutai Group, plans to increase its stake in Guizhou Moutai by investing between 3 billion and 3.3 billion yuan over the next six months [6][8]. - Moutai Group holds 678 million shares, representing 54.07% of the total share capital, and has committed not to reduce its holdings during the purchase period [8]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2023, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [8]. - Despite record revenue and profit, the growth rate has slowed to single digits for the first time since 2015, indicating potential underlying risks [9]. Market Context - Guizhou Moutai has faced increased pressure in a down cycle for the liquor industry, with a notable decline in contract liabilities, which fell by 42.59% from 95.9 billion yuan to 55.1 billion yuan [9]. - The company's cash flow from operations decreased significantly by 64.18% to 13.12 billion yuan, raising concerns about its financial stability [9]. - The recent stock price competition with Cambrian (688256.SH) highlights the challenges faced by Guizhou Moutai in maintaining its status as the highest-priced stock in A-shares [10].