Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-02 01:01Group 1: Core Issues in A-Share Market - The A-share market is currently focused on three main issues: the potential and limitations of household deposits moving to the stock market, the regulatory stance on rising stock prices, and investor expectations regarding economic policy catalysts [1][2][6] - Morgan Stanley estimates that there is a potential of 6-7 trillion RMB in excess term deposits available for reallocation, but significant inflows into the stock market depend on sustained market momentum and improvements in fundamentals [1][2][5] Group 2: Deposit Migration - The potential for household deposits to shift to the stock market is primarily driven by excess allocation during 2022-2023, influenced by increased household savings during lockdowns, adjustments in the real estate market, and a weak job market leading to lower risk appetite [2][5] - Financial institutions, particularly insurance companies, contributed approximately 600 billion RMB to stock market liquidity in the first half of the year, supported by central bank relending tools and more flexible investment performance assessments [5] Group 3: Regulatory Attitude - The regulatory body has shown a balanced attitude towards recent capital market performance, signaling support for healthy development while preventing excessive speculation [6][7] - The use of precise regulatory tools, such as the "national team" and window guidance, aims to intervene at appropriate times to curb excessive risk-taking, with recent market indicators showing signs of overheating [6][7] Group 4: Market Narrative - Despite challenges in the macroeconomic fundamentals, investor concerns about export prospects have eased, shifting focus towards potential policy catalysts and sustainable measures to boost domestic demand [7] - Anticipation is building for the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" and the Central Economic Work Conference, which are expected to provide clearer guidance on reform priorities, particularly in areas like local incentive mechanisms and tax reforms [7]