盾博dbg：摩根士丹利认为美联储将会加大降息幅度

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's interest rate strategy team suggests that the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts may be more aggressive than current market pricing indicates [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Predictions - Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast indicates a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with an additional 25 basis point cut expected before December 2026 [3] - The market previously anticipated a "hawkish neutral" stance from Powell, focusing on inflation not returning to the 2% target, but Morgan Stanley notes a shift towards prioritizing labor market signals over inflation [3] - The team constructed three alternative scenarios for changes in the federal funds target rate, weighted by probability [3] Group 2: Scenarios for Rate Cuts - Scenario 1: Accelerating labor market weakness with non-farm payrolls below 100,000 for three consecutive months and unemployment exceeding 4.5%, leading to a potential shift to 50 basis point cuts at each meeting [3] - Scenario 2: Mild inflation rebound with moderate labor market weakness, maintaining the current rate cut pace but with a total cut exceeding the baseline by 50 basis points [3] - Scenario 3: A "soft landing" for the economy with synchronized mild adjustments in employment and inflation, aligning closely with the baseline rate cut path [3] Group 3: Probability Adjustments - The combined probability for the first two accommodative scenarios has been raised to 65%, while the neutral scenario's probability stands at 35% [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to take three types of actions: 1. Go long on 5-year U.S. Treasuries, which are most sensitive to rate cut timing, as falling rates will boost bond prices [4] 2. Engage in steepening trades by establishing long positions at the short end of the yield curve while shorting at the long end to mitigate risks from rising long-term rates [5] 3. Go long on January 2026 federal funds futures, reflecting a bet that the future federal funds rate will be lower than current market pricing [5]