LZLJ(SZ:000568) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-02 04:09Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has reported its first decline in both revenue and net profit in nearly a decade, marking a significant turning point for the company [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Luzhou Laojiao achieved revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.67% compared to the same period last year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 4.54% to 7.663 billion yuan, with a non-recurring profit of 7.650 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year [1]. - Earnings per share decreased by 4.58% to 5.21 yuan, and the net operating cash flow was 6.065 billion yuan, down 26.27% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter saw revenue and net profit drop to 7.102 billion yuan and 3.070 billion yuan, respectively, representing declines of 7.97% and 11.1% year-on-year [1]. Market Analysis - Analysts from 12 brokerages expressed a generally pessimistic outlook on Luzhou Laojiao, with Shenwan Hongyuan Securities lowering its net profit forecast for the next three years, predicting a reduction from 13.53 billion yuan to 11.79 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 11.13% [2]. - The company attributed its performance decline to industry-wide factors, including a transformation in consumption structure and intensified competition in the liquor market [2]. Product Structure - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other categories declined, with mid-to-high-end liquor generating 15.048 billion yuan, down 1.09%, and other liquor generating 1.35 billion yuan, down 16.96% [5]. - Sales volume for mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 13.33%, while other liquor products saw a decline of 6.89% [5]. - The average price per ton for mid-to-high-end liquor fell by 12.72% to 623,900 yuan, and for other liquor, it decreased by 10.82% to 54,400 yuan [5]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao has adjusted its marketing expenses, reducing online, offline, and television advertising while increasing promotional expenses by 11.2% [5]. - The company is focusing on maintaining sales through promotions despite rising logistics and labor costs [5]. Innovation and Product Development - In response to consumer demand for lower-alcohol, healthier, and diversified products, Luzhou Laojiao is innovating and developing new drinking methods, including the 28-degree Guojiao 1573 [6]. - The company plans to shift resources towards mainstream mid-to-high-end products and is actively entering the high-growth light bottle liquor segment [6].