大摩：贵金属“完美风暴”已至，黄金今年有望冲击3800！

Core Viewpoint - A "perfect storm" of macro catalysts is forming for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by expected interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, ETF inflows, and a recovery in physical demand [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut on September 16-17, with another cut expected by year-end, historically leading to a significant increase in gold prices [1][4]. - Historical data shows that gold prices average a 6% increase within 60 days of the Fed starting a rate cut cycle, with some periods seeing increases as high as 14% [4]. - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of $3,800 per ounce for gold by Q4 2025, indicating an approximate 8% upside from the current price of $3,496 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Despite a weak global demand for gold jewelry in Q2, early signs of recovery are noted, particularly with a significant increase in India's gold imports in July [10]. - Global gold ETFs have seen a net inflow of approximately 440 tons this year, marking a fundamental shift in market sentiment after four years of outflows [11]. - Central banks have purchased 415 tons of gold this year, contributing to a stable long-term support for gold prices [11]. - Demand for physical gold bars and coins increased by 11% year-on-year in Q2, indicating strong interest from individual investors [11]. Group 3: Silver Outlook - Morgan Stanley's target price for silver is set at $40.9 per ounce, with potential for upside despite cautious views due to concerns over solar energy infrastructure in China and improved silver production in Mexico [14]. - Recent data shows a stable growth trajectory in China's solar cell production, increasing by approximately 40% year-on-year, suggesting strong underlying industrial demand for silver [14]. - Mexico's silver production declined by 7% year-on-year in June, which may create upward pressure on silver prices [14].